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Attendance: 26,590

Championship | Gameweek 37

Mar 8, 2020 at 3pm UK

Derby Derby County
3-0
Blackburn Blackburn Rovers

Sibley (26'), Martin (41', 85' pen.)

FT(HT: 2-0)

Preview: Derby County vs. Blackburn Rovers - prediction, team news, lineups

By Ben Knapton, Senior Reporter | 06 March 2020

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Championship clash between Derby County and Blackburn Rovers, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Derby County play host to Blackburn Rovers at Pride Park for Sunday's Championship clash with both sides having seen their promotion hopes suffer as of late.

Phillip Cocu's side currently sit 13th in the table on 48 points, whereas Blackburn lie eighth on 53 points following three consecutive draws.

Match preview

Derby County's Wayne Rooney pictured on March 5, 2020 © Reuters

There was to be no fairytale ending for Wayne Rooney in his reunion with Manchester United on Thursday, as Luke Shaw's opener and a brace from Odion Ighalo sent Ole Gunnar Solskjaer's side through to the last eight of the FA Cup at the expense of Cocu's side.

The Rams must now focus purely on the league and will be looking to build upon their 3-1 win over Sheffield Wednesday at Hillsborough last week.

Tom Lawrence and Jason Knight struck for Derby in the victory over Wednesday, while Chris Martin registered a hat-trick of assists to give the Rams their first win in five league matches.

Derby will welcome Blackburn to a ground where they have only lost twice all season in the Championship, and Cocu's men can boast the third-best home record in the league with nine wins, seven draws and two defeats.

The Rams could go as high as 10th in the table with a five-goal victory over the former Premier League champions, but they would have to hope that Wednesday, Cardiff City and Millwall all lose their respective matches.

Blackburn Rovers manager Tony Mowbray pictured in December 2019 © Reuters

Blackburn's 2-2 draw with Swansea City last Saturday was their third in succession, although they were rescued right at the death thanks to Bradley Johnson's 94th-minute leveller.

Tony Mowbray's side are only three points off sixth-placed Preston North End, however, and are unbeaten in their last four Championship matches away from home.

Furthermore, Rovers have not failed to score on their travels since they suffered a 1-0 defeat to Birmingham City back in October, and their +10 goal difference is the best in the league outside the top six.

Should Preston and Bristol City both fail to pick up wins this weekend, Blackburn would climb into the playoff places with victory at Pride Park.

Mowbray's side took the spoils in this fixture back in December, as Adam Armstrong's 57th-minute strike was enough for a 1-0 victory at Ewood Park.

Derby County Championship form: WLDDLW
Derby County form (all competitions): LDDLWL

Blackburn Rovers Championship form: LWWDDD

Team News

Tom Lawrence in action for Derby County on February 8, 2020 © Reuters

Cocu is expected to make changes to the side that lost to United in midweek.

Ben Hamer is likely to replace Kelle Roos in goal, while Graeme Shinnie may return to partner Max Bird in midfield.

Tom Lawrence limped off in the FA Cup defeat, while Andre Wisdom missed out through illness. Both are being assessed ahead of the weekend's fixture.

Krystian Bielik and Duane Holmes remain out, while Tom Huddlestone and Ikechi Anya are both doubtful.

Blackburn will be without Derrick Williams as he continues his recovery from a calf injury, while fellow defender Darragh Lenihan is suspended.

Bradley Johnson may be rewarded for his last-minute heroics against Swansea with a spot in the starting XI, and Danny Graham could also be recalled.

Corry Evans, Lewis Holtby and Bradley Dack all remain out.

Derby County possible starting lineup:
Hamer; Bogle, Clarke, Davies, Forsyth; Bird, Shinnie, Waghorn, Rooney, Knight; Martin

Blackburn Rovers possible starting lineup:
Walton; Bennett, Nyambe, Adarabioyo, Bell; Travis, Johnson, Gallagher, Armstrong, Downing; Graham

We say: Derby County 2-2 Blackburn Rovers

Derby have been impressive at Pride Park all season, and Blackburn haven't been able to stop scoring away from home in the past few months. With that in mind, we are going for a high-scoring draw between two sides who will no doubt be desperate for all three points.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a win with a probability of 45.73%. A win for had a probability of 28.61% and a draw had a probability of 25.7%.

The most likely scoreline for a win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.77%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.17%) and 2-0 (8.1%). The likeliest win was 0-1 (8.12%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.2%).