Euro 2024

Euro Champ Qualifying | Group Stage

Mar 23, 2023 at 3pm UK

Kazakhstan
1 - 2
Slovenia

Samorodov (23')
Bystrov (55'), Orazov (66')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Brekalo (47'), Vipotnik (78')
Stojanovic (45+1')

Preview

Data Analysis

Lineups

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Euro Champ Qualifying clash between Kazakhstan and Slovenia, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Kazakhstan

All competitions

Last Game: UAE 2-1 Kazakhstan
Saturday, November 19 at 3.30pm in International Friendlies

Current League C3 Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Kazakhstan	0	0	0
2	Belarus	0	0	0
3	Azerbaijan	0	0	0
4	Slovakia	0	0	0

Slovenia

All competitions

Last Game: Slovenia 1-0 Montenegro
Sunday, November 20 at 2pm in International Friendlies

Current League B4 Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Sweden	0	0	0
2	Serbia	0	0	0
3	Norway	0	0	0
4	Slovenia	0	0	0

We said: Kazakhstan 0-1 Slovenia

Slovenia impressed in their two most recent friendlies, picking up a very impressive 1-0 win against Romania, who on paper are probably a better side than Kazakhstan. As such, we expect Kekci to get their qualification campaign off to the perfect start, but it will not be easy, as their opponents have made significant strides as a team since they last competed for a spot at the Euros. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Slovenia win with a probability of 44.75%. A draw had a probability of 28.1% and a win for Kazakhstan had a probability of 27.18%.

The most likely scoreline for a Slovenia win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.62%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.92%) and 1-2 (8.5%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.99%), while for a Kazakhstan win it was 1-0 (9.92%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Slovenia would win this match.

Result
Kazakhstan	Draw	Slovenia
27.18% ( -0.01)	28.06% ( -0.01)	44.75% ( 0.02)

Both teams to score 44.87% (

0.02)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

39.4% (

0.03)

60.59% (

-0.03)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

19.31% (

0.02)

80.69% (

-0.02)

Kazakhstan Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

61.47% (

0.01)

38.53% (

-0.01)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

24.72% (

0.01)

75.28% (

-0.01)

Slovenia Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

72.99% (

0.02)

27.01% (

-0.02)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

37.64% (

0.03)

62.36% (

-0.03)

Score Analysis

Kazakhstan 27.18%

Slovenia 44.75%

Draw 28.05%

Kazakhstan	Draw	Slovenia
1-0 @ 9.92% ( -0.01) 2-1 @ 6.2% 2-0 @ 4.73% ( -0) 3-1 @ 1.97% ( 0) 3-0 @ 1.5% ( -0) 3-2 @ 1.29% ( 0) Other @ 1.57% Total : 27.18%	1-1 @ 12.99% 0-0 @ 10.4% ( -0.01) 2-2 @ 4.06% ( 0) Other @ 0.61% Total : 28.05%	0-1 @ 13.62% 0-2 @ 8.92% ( 0) 1-2 @ 8.5% ( 0) 0-3 @ 3.89% ( 0) 1-3 @ 3.71% ( 0) 2-3 @ 1.77% ( 0) 0-4 @ 1.27% ( 0) 1-4 @ 1.21% ( 0) Other @ 1.85% Total : 44.75%