Euro 2024

Euro Champ Qualifying | Group Stage

Mar 26, 2023 at 7.45pm UK

Malta
0 - 2
Italy

FT(HT: 0-2)

Retegui (15'), Pessina (27')
Di Lorenzo (36'), Scalvini (54')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Euro Champ Qualifying clash between Malta and Italy, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Predicted Lineups

Sports Mole takes an in-depth look at how Italy could line up for Sunday's European Championship qualifying clash with Malta.

Form, Standings, Stats

Malta

All competitions

Euro Champ Qualifying

Last Game: N. Macedonia 2-1 Malta
Thursday, March 23 at 7.45pm in Euro Champ Qualifying

Current League D2 Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Estonia	0	0	0
2	Malta	0	0	0
3	San Marino	0	0	0

Italy

All competitions

Euro Champ Qualifying

Last Game: Italy 1-2 England
Thursday, March 23 at 7.45pm in Euro Champ Qualifying

Current League A3 Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Italy	6	1	11
2	Hungary	6	3	10
3	Germany	6	2	7
4	England	6	-6	3

Italy were unimpressive as an attacking force in their Euro qualifying opener, but a number of fringe players - such as Gnonto, Grifo and Politano - could now come to the fore against less demanding opponents. Malta may have shown signs of improvement, but denying the Azzurri victory this weekend is a feat beyond their wildest dreams. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Italy win with a probability of 78.99%. A draw had a probability of 14.3% and a win for Malta had a probability of 6.76%.

The most likely scoreline for a Italy win was 0-2 with a probability of 14.27%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-3 (11.84%) and 0-1 (11.46%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.74%), while for a Malta win it was 1-0 (2.71%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 14.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 0-2 win for Italy in this match.

Result
Malta	Draw	Italy
6.76% ( 0.27)	14.25% ( 0.53)	78.99% ( -0.8)

Both teams to score 40.78% (

-0.41)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

59.42% (

-1.45)

40.58% (

1.45)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

37.04% (

-1.5)

62.96% (

1.5)

Malta Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

44.46% (

-0.21)

55.53% (

0.21)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

11.8% (

-0.12)

88.2% (

0.12)

Italy Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

91.71% (

-0.51)

8.29% (

0.51)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

71.07% (

-1.28)

28.93% (

1.29)

Score Analysis

Malta 6.76%

Italy 78.98%

Draw 14.25%

Malta	Draw	Italy
1-0 @ 2.71% ( 0.16) 2-1 @ 1.98% ( 0.06) Other @ 2.07% Total : 6.76%	1-1 @ 6.74% ( 0.24) 0-0 @ 4.6% ( 0.3) 2-2 @ 2.47% ( 0.01) Other @ 0.44% Total : 14.25%	0-2 @ 14.27% ( 0.24) 0-3 @ 11.84% ( -0.1) 0-1 @ 11.46% ( 0.48) 1-2 @ 8.4% ( 0.09) 0-4 @ 7.38% ( -0.25) 1-3 @ 6.97% ( -0.1) 1-4 @ 4.34% ( -0.18) 0-5 @ 3.67% ( -0.22) 1-5 @ 2.16% ( -0.15) 2-3 @ 2.05% ( -0.04) 0-6 @ 1.53% ( -0.13) 2-4 @ 1.28% ( -0.06) Other @ 3.64% Total : 78.98%