Euro 2024

Euro Champ Qualifying | Group Stage

Mar 28, 2023 at 7.45pm UK

Turkey
0 - 2
Croatia

FT(HT: 0-2)

Kovacic (20', 45+4')
Livakovic (62'), Gvardiol (69')

Preview

Data Analysis

Lineups

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's Euro Champ Qualifying clash between Turkey and Croatia, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Turkey

All competitions

Euro Champ Qualifying

Last Game: Armenia 1-2 Turkey
Saturday, March 25 at 5pm in Euro Champ Qualifying

Current Group D Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Turkey	1	1	3
2	Wales	1	0	1
3	Croatia	1	0	1
4	Latvia	0	0	0
5	Armenia	1	-1	0

Croatia

All competitions

Euro Champ Qualifying

Last Game: Croatia 1-1 Wales
Saturday, March 25 at 7.45pm in Euro Champ Qualifying

Current Group D Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Turkey	1	1	3
2	Wales	1	0	1
3	Croatia	1	0	1
4	Latvia	0	0	0
5	Armenia	1	-1	0

As both teams pose a goal threat and, in the circumstances, are equally motivated to go for the win, an open encounter could ensue. Croatia rarely taste defeat in any competition, given their nous and hard-won know-how, so even if they fall behind in Bursa, they can find a way back into the contest and tame a talented Turkey side. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Turkey win with a probability of 42.35%. A win for Croatia had a probability of 31.43% and a draw had a probability of 26.2%.

The most likely scoreline for a Turkey win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.56%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.81%) and 2-0 (7.47%). The likeliest Croatia win was 0-1 (8.82%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.46%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 5.2% likelihood.

Result
Turkey	Draw	Croatia
42.35% ( 1.68)	26.22% ( -0.35)	31.43% ( -1.32)

Both teams to score 52.42% (

0.65)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

48% (

1.05)

52.01% (

-1.04)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

26.26% (

0.9)

73.74% (

-0.89)

Turkey Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

75.67% (

1.34)

24.33% (

-1.33)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

41.28% (

1.85)

58.72% (

-1.84)

Croatia Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

69.28% (

-0.36)

30.72% (

0.37)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

33.02% (

-0.43)

66.98% (

0.44)

Score Analysis

Turkey 42.35%

Croatia 31.43%

Draw 26.21%

Turkey	Draw	Croatia
1-0 @ 10.56% ( -0.03) 2-1 @ 8.81% ( 0.22) 2-0 @ 7.47% ( 0.26) 3-1 @ 4.15% ( 0.26) 3-0 @ 3.52% ( 0.25) 3-2 @ 2.45% ( 0.13) 4-1 @ 1.47% ( 0.14) 4-0 @ 1.24% ( 0.13) Other @ 2.68% Total : 42.35%	1-1 @ 12.46% ( -0.17) 0-0 @ 7.48% ( -0.31) 2-2 @ 5.2% ( 0.08) 3-3 @ 0.96% ( 0.04) Other @ 0.11% Total : 26.21%	0-1 @ 8.82% ( -0.47) 1-2 @ 7.36% ( -0.17) 0-2 @ 5.21% ( -0.33) 1-3 @ 2.89% ( -0.1) 0-3 @ 2.05% ( -0.15) 2-3 @ 2.05% ( 0.01) Other @ 3.06% Total : 31.43%