Euro 2020

European Championship | Group Stage

Jun 23, 2021 at 5pm UK

Aviva Stadium

Sweden
3 - 2
Poland

Forsberg (2', 59'), Claesson (90+4')
Danielsson (10')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Lewandowski (61', 84')
Krychowiak (74'), Glik (83')

Janne Andersson hails "warriors" Sweden after dramatic Poland win

Viktor Claesson's stoppage-time winner snatched victory in St Petersburg.

Jun 23, 20:59

The Match

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sweden win with a probability of 42.74%. A win for Poland had a probability of 32.66% and a draw had a probability of 24.6%.

The most likely scoreline for a Sweden win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.99%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.59%) and 2-0 (6.72%). The likeliest Poland win was 1-2 (7.69%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.49%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Sweden would win this match.

Result
Sweden	Draw	Poland
42.74%	24.59%	32.66%

Both teams to score 58.31%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

55.43%

44.56%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

33.07%

66.93%

Sweden Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

79.06%

20.93%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

46.33%

53.67%

Poland Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

73.75%

26.25%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

38.64%

61.35%

Score Analysis

Sweden 42.74%

Poland 32.66%

Draw 24.59%

Sweden	Draw	Poland
2-1 @ 8.99% 1-0 @ 8.59% 2-0 @ 6.72% 3-1 @ 4.68% 3-0 @ 3.5% 3-2 @ 3.13% 4-1 @ 1.83% 4-0 @ 1.37% 4-2 @ 1.23% Other @ 2.7% Total : 42.74%	1-1 @ 11.49% 2-2 @ 6.01% 0-0 @ 5.49% 3-3 @ 1.4% Other @ 0.2% Total : 24.59%	1-2 @ 7.69% 0-1 @ 7.35% 0-2 @ 4.92% 1-3 @ 3.43% 2-3 @ 2.68% 0-3 @ 2.19% 1-4 @ 1.15% Other @ 3.27% Total : 32.66%