Both nations qualified automatically for Euro 2024, but neither has fully convinced of late - particularly in defence. The two coaches will want to test solutions to some tactical conundrums without morale taking a hit through defeat, so a low-scoring draw could play out at the Dall'Ara. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Italy win with a probability of 69.83%. A draw had a probability of 17.4% and a win for Turkey had a probability of 12.8%.

The most likely scoreline for a Italy win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.38%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.6%) and 1-0 (8.7%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.04%), while for a Turkey win it was 1-2 (3.71%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 3.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.

Result
Italy	Draw	Turkey
69.83% ( 0.21)	17.37% ( -0.16)	12.8% ( -0.05)

Both teams to score 54.78% (

0.43)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

64.32% (

0.63)

35.68% (

-0.63)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

42.25% (

0.69)

57.75% (

-0.69)

Italy Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

90.82% (

0.21)

9.17% (

-0.21)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

68.91% (

0.5)

31.09% (

-0.5)

Turkey Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

60.31% (

0.33)

39.68% (

-0.34)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

23.64% (

0.31)

76.36% (

-0.31)

Score Analysis

Italy 69.82%

Turkey 12.8%

Draw 17.37%

Italy	Draw	Turkey
2-0 @ 10.38% ( -0.13) 2-1 @ 9.6% ( -0.03) 1-0 @ 8.7% ( -0.19) 3-0 @ 8.27% ( -0.02) 3-1 @ 7.64% ( 0.05) 4-0 @ 4.94% ( 0.04) 4-1 @ 4.57% ( 0.07) 3-2 @ 3.53% ( 0.06) 5-0 @ 2.36% ( 0.04) 5-1 @ 2.18% ( 0.06) 4-2 @ 2.11% ( 0.05) 5-2 @ 1.01% ( 0.04) 6-0 @ 0.94% ( 0.02) Other @ 3.59% Total : 69.82%	1-1 @ 8.04% ( -0.1) 2-2 @ 4.44% ( 0.03) 0-0 @ 3.64% ( -0.12) 3-3 @ 1.09% ( 0.03) Other @ 0.16% Total : 17.37%	1-2 @ 3.71% ( -0.01) 0-1 @ 3.37% ( -0.07) 0-2 @ 1.56% ( -0.02) 2-3 @ 1.37% ( 0.02) 1-3 @ 1.14% ( 0.01) Other @ 1.66% Total : 12.8%