These are two intelligent and compact defensive units that are well organised and difficult to break down, though we believe Uruguay will have a slight edge in a variety of categories, including experience and individual quality, plus they have faced much stiffer competition when compared to El Tri. Those factors and the fact that this match is being played at a neutral venue rather than Estadio Azteca should favour La Celeste. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mexico win with a probability of 39.89%. A win for Uruguay had a probability of 34.63% and a draw had a probability of 25.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a Mexico win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.14%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.64%) and 2-0 (6.56%). The likeliest Uruguay win was 0-1 (8.41%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.05%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 2.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Uruguay would win this match.

Result
Mexico	Draw	Uruguay
39.89% ( 0.38)	25.49% ( -0.26)	34.63% ( -0.12)

Both teams to score 55.79% (

0.85)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

51.91% (

1.11)

48.09% (

-1.11)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

29.75% (

1.01)

70.25% (

-1.01)

Mexico Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

76.16% (

0.69)

23.84% (

-0.69)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

41.97% (

0.98)

58.03% (

-0.98)

Uruguay Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

73.25% (

0.46)

26.75% (

-0.46)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

37.98% (

0.6)

62.02% (

-0.6)

Score Analysis

Mexico 39.89%

Uruguay 34.63%

Draw 25.48%

Mexico	Draw	Uruguay
1-0 @ 9.14% ( -0.23) 2-1 @ 8.64% ( 0.07) 2-0 @ 6.56% ( -0.03) 3-1 @ 4.13% ( 0.11) 3-0 @ 3.13% ( 0.05) 3-2 @ 2.72% ( 0.11) 4-1 @ 1.48% ( 0.07) 4-0 @ 1.12% ( 0.04) 4-2 @ 0.98% ( 0.06) Other @ 1.98% Total : 39.89%	1-1 @ 12.05% ( -0.15) 0-0 @ 6.38% ( -0.3) 2-2 @ 5.7% ( 0.12) 3-3 @ 1.2% ( 0.06) Other @ 0.15% Total : 25.48%	0-1 @ 8.41% ( -0.28) 1-2 @ 7.95% ( 0) 0-2 @ 5.55% ( -0.11) 1-3 @ 3.49% ( 0.05) 2-3 @ 2.51% ( 0.08) 0-3 @ 2.44% ( -0.02) 1-4 @ 1.15% ( 0.03) Other @ 3.14% Total : 34.63%