Serie A

Serie A | Gameweek 20

Jan 14, 2024 at 7.45pm UK

Stadio Giuseppe Meazza

AC Milan
3 - 1
Roma

Adli (11'), Giroud (56'), Hernandez (84')
Kjaer (71'), Gabbia (90')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Paredes (69' pen.)
Mancini (43'), Cristante (56'), Huijsen (81')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Serie A clash between AC Milan and Roma, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

AC Milan

All competitions

Serie A

Last Game: AC Milan 1-2 Atalanta
Wednesday, January 10 at 8pm in Coppa Italia

Goals
for

Top scorers

Roma

All competitions

Serie A

Last Game: Lazio 1-0 Roma
Wednesday, January 10 at 5pm in Coppa Italia

Goals
for

Top scorers

Milan could complete the double over Roma in Serie A's Sunday night kickoff, as their squad has stood up to its latest raft of absences much better than their opponents, who are also depleted and are generally less effective outside of Rome. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AC Milan win with a probability of 49.19%. A win for Roma had a probability of 25.76% and a draw had a probability of 25%.

The most likely scoreline for an AC Milan win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.07%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.45%) and 2-0 (8.79%). The likeliest Roma win was 0-1 (7.51%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.91%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that AC Milan would win this match.

Result
AC Milan	Draw	Roma
49.19% ( -0.05)	25.05% ( 0.01)	25.76% ( 0.04)

Both teams to score 52.4% (

-0)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

49.69% (

-0.02)

50.3% (

0.02)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

27.75% (

-0.02)

72.25% (

0.02)

AC Milan Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

79.53% (

-0.03)

20.47% (

0.03)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

47.06% (

-0.05)

52.93% (

0.05)

Roma Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

65.88% (

0.02)

34.11% (

-0.02)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

29.19% (

0.02)

70.8% (

-0.02)

Score Analysis

AC Milan 49.19%

Roma 25.76%

Draw 25.05%

AC Milan	Draw	Roma
1-0 @ 11.07% 2-1 @ 9.45% ( -0) 2-0 @ 8.79% ( -0.01) 3-1 @ 5% ( -0.01) 3-0 @ 4.65% ( -0.01) 3-2 @ 2.69% ( -0) 4-1 @ 1.98% ( -0) 4-0 @ 1.84% ( -0.01) 4-2 @ 1.07% ( -0) Other @ 2.67% Total : 49.19%	1-1 @ 11.91% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 6.98% ( 0.01) 2-2 @ 5.08% ( 0) 3-3 @ 0.96% Other @ 0.11% Total : 25.05%	0-1 @ 7.51% ( 0.01) 1-2 @ 6.41% ( 0.01) 0-2 @ 4.04% ( 0.01) 1-3 @ 2.3% ( 0) 2-3 @ 1.82% ( 0) 0-3 @ 1.45% ( 0) Other @ 2.24% Total : 25.76%