After a very poor first four months of the 2023-24 campaign, Celta Vigo finally started to find some form over the last month and will head into this match with bags of confidence, having lost just one of their last five matches. The hosts are expected to give this one a good go, but we are backing the visitors to progress to the last 16. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Celta Vigo win with a probability of 38.13%. A win for Amorebieta had a probability of 33.95% and a draw had a probability of 27.9%.

The most likely scoreline for a Celta Vigo win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.56%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.02%) and 0-2 (7.06%). The likeliest Amorebieta win was 1-0 (10.75%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.13%). The actual scoreline of 2-4 was predicted with a 0.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Celta Vigo would win this match.

Result
Amorebieta	Draw	Celta Vigo
33.95% ( -0.02)	27.92% ( 0.02)	38.13% ( 0)

Both teams to score 47.88% (

-0.05)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

41.92% (

-0.06)

58.08% (

0.06)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

21.25% (

-0.04)

78.75% (

0.04)

Amorebieta Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

67.9% (

-0.04)

32.11% (

0.04)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

31.42% (

-0.05)

68.58% (

0.05)

Celta Vigo Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

70.53% (

-0.03)

29.48% (

0.03)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

34.52% (

-0.03)

65.49% (

0.03)

Score Analysis

Amorebieta 33.95%

Celta Vigo 38.13%

Draw 27.92%

Amorebieta	Draw	Celta Vigo
1-0 @ 10.75% ( 0.01) 2-1 @ 7.46% ( -0.01) 2-0 @ 6.11% 3-1 @ 2.83% ( -0) 3-0 @ 2.31% ( -0) 3-2 @ 1.73% ( -0) Other @ 2.77% Total : 33.95%	1-1 @ 13.13% 0-0 @ 9.46% ( 0.02) 2-2 @ 4.56% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.77% Total : 27.92%	0-1 @ 11.56% ( 0.02) 1-2 @ 8.02% ( -0) 0-2 @ 7.06% ( 0) 1-3 @ 3.27% ( -0) 0-3 @ 2.88% ( -0) 2-3 @ 1.86% ( -0) 1-4 @ 1% ( -0) Other @ 2.49% Total : 38.13%