Bundesliga

Bundesliga | Gameweek 21

Feb 9, 2024 at 7.30pm UK

Signal-Iduna-Park

Dortmund
3 - 0
Freiburg

Malen (16', 45+7'), Fullkrug (87')
Ryerson (14'), Malen (73')

FT(HT: 2-0)

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Friday's Bundesliga clash between Borussia Dortmund and Freiburg, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Borussia Dortmund

All competitions

Bundesliga

Last Game: Heidenheim 0-0 Dortmund
Friday, February 2 at 7.30pm in Bundesliga

Goals
for

Top scorers

Freiburg

All competitions

Last Game: Freiburg 1-3 Stuttgart
Saturday, February 3 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga

Goals
for

Top scorers

We said: Borussia Dortmund 3-1 Freiburg

In what should be a competitive encounter, Dortmund may be made to work for their three points on home soil, especially in the midst of an injury and illness crisis. Freiburg have not yet reached the levels they had shown in 2023 though, and are currently stuck in a poor run of form which is likely to continue here. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Borussia Dortmund win with a probability of 58.12%. A win for Freiburg had a probability of 21.24% and a draw had a probability of 20.6%.

The most likely scoreline for a Borussia Dortmund win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.73%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.02%) and 1-0 (7.57%). The likeliest Freiburg win was 1-2 (5.57%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.18%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 5.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Borussia Dortmund would win this match.

Result
Borussia Dortmund	Draw	Freiburg
58.12% ( 1.01)	20.64% ( -0.07)	21.24% ( -0.94)

Both teams to score 61.83% (

-1.2)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

64.69% (

-0.94)

35.31% (

0.94)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

42.67% (

-1.05)

57.33% (

1.06)

Borussia Dortmund Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

87.98% (

-0.01)

12.02% (

0.02)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

62.52% (

-0.03)

37.48% (

0.04)

Freiburg Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

70.27% (

-1.34)

29.73% (

1.35)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

34.21% (

-1.67)

65.79% (

1.67)

Score Analysis

Borussia Dortmund 58.12%

Freiburg 21.24%

Draw 20.64%

Borussia Dortmund	Draw	Freiburg
2-1 @ 9.73% ( 0.09) 2-0 @ 8.02% ( 0.37) 1-0 @ 7.57% ( 0.35) 3-1 @ 6.87% ( 0.06) 3-0 @ 5.66% ( 0.25) 3-2 @ 4.17% ( -0.12) 4-1 @ 3.64% ( 0.03) 4-0 @ 3% ( 0.13) 4-2 @ 2.21% ( -0.07) 5-1 @ 1.54% ( 0.01) 5-0 @ 1.27% ( 0.05) 5-2 @ 0.94% ( -0.03) Other @ 3.51% Total : 58.12%	1-1 @ 9.18% ( 0.09) 2-2 @ 5.9% ( -0.17) 0-0 @ 3.57% ( 0.17) 3-3 @ 1.69% ( -0.12) Other @ 0.3% Total : 20.64%	1-2 @ 5.57% ( -0.16) 0-1 @ 4.33% ( 0.04) 0-2 @ 2.63% ( -0.07) 2-3 @ 2.39% ( -0.16) 1-3 @ 2.25% ( -0.15) 0-3 @ 1.06% ( -0.07) Other @ 3% Total : 21.24%