Serie A

Serie A | Gameweek 23

Feb 3, 2024 at 5pm UK

Stadio Benito Stirpe

Frosinone
2 - 3
AC Milan

Soule (24' pen.), Mazzitelli (65')
Harroui (56')

FT(HT: 1-1)

Giroud (17'), Gabbia (72'), Jovic (81')
Loftus-Cheek (43'), Reijnders (48'), Florenzi (90+5')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Serie A clash between Frosinone and AC Milan, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Frosinone

All competitions

Serie A

Last Game: Hellas Verona 1-1 Frosinone
Sunday, January 28 at 2pm in Serie A

Goals
for

Top scorers

AC Milan

All competitions

Serie A

Last Game: AC Milan 2-2 Bologna
Saturday, January 27 at 7.45pm in Serie A

Goals
for

Top scorers

We said: Frosinone 1-2 AC Milan

The side with most first-half goals this season (Milan, 24) take on the team that has conceded more during the opening 45 minutes than any other (Frosinone, 20). The Rossoneri may make a fast start, then, before holding out for victory over opponents that have lost some momentum. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AC Milan win with a probability of 50.05%. A win for Frosinone had a probability of 26.26% and a draw had a probability of 23.7%.

The most likely scoreline for an AC Milan win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.61%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (9.32%) and 0-2 (8.07%). The likeliest Frosinone win was 2-1 (6.61%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.09%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 3.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that AC Milan would win this match.

Result
Frosinone	Draw	AC Milan
26.26% ( -1.33)	23.69% ( -0.07)	50.05% ( 1.4)

Both teams to score 57.26% (

-0.91)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

55.9% (

-0.67)

44.1% (

0.68)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

33.52% (

-0.66)

66.49% (

0.66)

Frosinone Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

69.59% (

-1.34)

30.41% (

1.35)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

33.39% (

-1.63)

66.62% (

1.63)

AC Milan Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

82.29% (

0.28)

17.71% (

-0.28)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

51.63% (

0.48)

48.37% (

-0.48)

Score Analysis

Frosinone 26.26%

AC Milan 50.05%

Draw 23.69%

Frosinone	Draw	AC Milan
2-1 @ 6.61% ( -0.24) 1-0 @ 6.41% ( -0.05) 2-0 @ 3.82% ( -0.18) 3-1 @ 2.62% ( -0.2) 3-2 @ 2.27% ( -0.15) 3-0 @ 1.51% ( -0.13) Other @ 3.02% Total : 26.26%	1-1 @ 11.09% ( 0.01) 2-2 @ 5.72% ( -0.16) 0-0 @ 5.39% ( 0.16) 3-3 @ 1.31% ( -0.07) Other @ 0.18% Total : 23.69%	1-2 @ 9.61% ( 0.1) 0-1 @ 9.32% ( 0.35) 0-2 @ 8.07% ( 0.38) 1-3 @ 5.54% ( 0.11) 0-3 @ 4.66% ( 0.26) 2-3 @ 3.3% ( -0.06) 1-4 @ 2.4% ( 0.07) 0-4 @ 2.02% ( 0.13) 2-4 @ 1.43% ( -0.01) Other @ 3.71% Total : 50.05%