La Liga

La Liga | Gameweek 29

Mar 16, 2024 at 3.15pm UK

Estadio El Sadar

Osasuna
2 - 4
Real Madrid

Budimir (7'), Munoz (90+1')
Herrando (31'), Torro (55'), Garcia (63')

FT(HT: 1-2)

Junior (4', 64'), Carvajal (18'), Diaz (61')
Junior (44'), Camavinga (53')

Carlo Ancelotti moves onto 200 wins as Real Madrid manager

Carlo Ancelotti secures his 200th victory as Real Madrid head coach on Saturday afternoon, as Los Blancos best Osasuna 4-2.

Mar 16, 18:47

The Match

Form, Standings, Stats

Osasuna

All competitions

Last Game: Girona 2-0 Osasuna
Saturday, March 9 at 8pm in La Liga

Goals
for

Top scorers

Real Madrid

All competitions

La Liga

Last Game: Real Madrid 4-0 Celta Vigo
Sunday, March 10 at 5.30pm in La Liga

Goals
for

Top scorers

We said: Osasuna 1-2 Real Madrid

This has the potential to be a very difficult match for Real Madrid, and both Girona and Barcelona will be looking for a favour from Osasuna. It would not be a surprise to see a draw here, but we just have a feeling that Ancelotti's side will be able to navigate their way to another big three points in the title race. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Real Madrid win with a probability of 55.85%. A draw had a probability of 23.6% and a win for Osasuna had a probability of 20.6%.

The most likely scoreline for a Real Madrid win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.67%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.18%) and 1-2 (9.77%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.2%), while for a Osasuna win it was 1-0 (6.42%). The actual scoreline of 2-4 was predicted with a 1.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Real Madrid would win this match.

Result
Osasuna	Draw	Real Madrid
20.6% ( -0.27)	23.55% ( -0.23)	55.85% ( 0.5)

Both teams to score 50.92% (

0.3)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

50.75% (

0.59)

49.25% (

-0.59)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

28.69% (

0.53)

71.3% (

-0.53)

Osasuna Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

61.7% (

0.06)

38.3% (

-0.06)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

24.94% (

0.06)

75.06% (

-0.06)

Real Madrid Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

82.53% (

0.4)

17.46% (

-0.4)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

52.06% (

0.69)

47.94% (

-0.69)

Score Analysis

Osasuna 20.6%

Real Madrid 55.84%

Draw 23.55%

Osasuna	Draw	Real Madrid
1-0 @ 6.42% ( -0.15) 2-1 @ 5.38% ( -0.04) 2-0 @ 3.08% ( -0.07) 3-1 @ 1.72% ( -0.01) 3-2 @ 1.5% ( 0.01) 3-0 @ 0.99% ( -0.02) Other @ 1.52% Total : 20.6%	1-1 @ 11.2% ( -0.1) 0-0 @ 6.69% ( -0.16) 2-2 @ 4.69% ( 0.02) Other @ 0.97% Total : 23.55%	0-1 @ 11.67% ( -0.13) 0-2 @ 10.18% ( 0.02) 1-2 @ 9.77% ( 0.03) 0-3 @ 5.92% ( 0.09) 1-3 @ 5.69% ( 0.09) 2-3 @ 2.73% ( 0.05) 0-4 @ 2.58% ( 0.07) 1-4 @ 2.48% ( 0.07) 2-4 @ 1.19% ( 0.04) 0-5 @ 0.9% ( 0.04) Other @ 2.73% Total : 55.84%