Serie A

Serie A | Gameweek 38

Jun 4, 2023 at 8pm UK

Stadio Olimpico

Roma
2 - 1
Spezia

Zalewski (43'), Dybala (90+1' pen.)
Pellegrini (44'), Dybala (78')
Foti (15')

FT(HT: 1-1)

Nikolaou (6')
Esposito (14'), Nikolaou (58'), Zoet (66'), Amian (76'), Semplici (79+79'), Gyasi (86'), Wisniewski (90+7'), Shomurodov (90+12')
Amian (88')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Serie A clash between Roma and Spezia, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Roma

All competitions

Serie A

Last Game: Sevilla 1-1 Roma (4-1 pen.)
Wednesday, May 31 at 8pm in Europa League

Goals
for

Top scorers

Spezia

All competitions

Last Game: Spezia 0-4 Torino
Saturday, May 27 at 2pm in Serie A

Goals
for

Despite Roma's heartache in midweek, Mourinho should be able to get his players motivated for one last push in what could be his late game in charge. Spezia's form has been woeful in 2023, and they are lucky that Verona's has been similarly poor, with a relegation playout looking likely. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Roma win with a probability of 65.91%. A draw had a probability of 20.3% and a win for Spezia had a probability of 13.82%.

The most likely scoreline for a Roma win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.22%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (12.11%) and 2-1 (9.72%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.63%), while for a Spezia win it was 0-1 (4.78%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Roma in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Roma.

Result
Roma	Draw	Spezia
65.91% ( 0.33)	20.27% ( -0.09)	13.82% ( -0.25)

Both teams to score 47.55% (

-0.36)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

53.34% (

-0.13)

46.65% (

0.12)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

31.08% (

-0.13)

68.92% (

0.12)

Roma Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

86.69% (

0.05)

13.3% (

-0.06)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

59.86% (

0.12)

40.14% (

-0.13)

Spezia Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

54.85% (

-0.45)

45.15% (

0.44)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

18.94% (

-0.36)

81.05% (

0.35)

Score Analysis

Roma 65.91%

Spezia 13.82%

Draw 20.27%

Roma	Draw	Spezia
2-0 @ 12.22% ( 0.12) 1-0 @ 12.11% ( 0.09) 2-1 @ 9.72% ( -0.02) 3-0 @ 8.22% ( 0.1) 3-1 @ 6.53% ( -0) 4-0 @ 4.14% ( 0.06) 4-1 @ 3.3% ( 0.01) 3-2 @ 2.6% ( -0.03) 5-0 @ 1.67% ( 0.03) 5-1 @ 1.33% ( 0) 4-2 @ 1.31% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.76% Total : 65.91%	1-1 @ 9.63% ( -0.05) 0-0 @ 6.01% ( 0.03) 2-2 @ 3.86% ( -0.06) Other @ 0.76% Total : 20.27%	0-1 @ 4.78% ( -0.03) 1-2 @ 3.83% ( -0.07) 0-2 @ 1.9% ( -0.04) 2-3 @ 1.02% ( -0.03) 1-3 @ 1.02% ( -0.03) Other @ 1.27% Total : 13.82%