Fresh off the back of ending their seven-game winless run, 17th-placed Moreirense play host to 16th-placed Tondela in a thrilling relegation six-pointer on Saturday.

This clash has all the makings of a nerve-racking contest as both sides head into the game separated by just two points in the relegation zone.

Match preview

Moreirense players celebrate after Benfica's Gilberto scored an own goal and the first for them on January 15, 2022 © Reuters

Moreirense kept their hopes of beating the drop alive last Friday when they picked up a 2-1 victory over Gil Vincente at the Estadio Cidade de Barcelos.

Following an uneventful first half, Brazilian midfielder Jefferson struck twice in the second half to put the visitors in a comfortable lead before Samuel Lino grabbed an 89th-minute consolation.

Prior to that, Ricardo Sa Pinto's side were on a seven-game winless run, losing six and claiming just one draw since a 4-1 victory over fellow relegation strugglers Belenenses on April 7.

With 23 points from 29 games, Moreirense are currently bottom but one in the Primeira Liga standings, two points above last-placed Belenenses and two adrift of Saturday's visitors.

While they will look to move out of the relegation places this weekend, next up is an opposing side whom they have failed to beat in each of their last five attempts, picking up two draws and losing three games since a 2-0 win back in 2019.

Tondela players challenge for the all against Benfica in June 2020 © Reuters

Elsewhere, Tondela were on the receiving end of a 3-1 defeat when they squared off against reigning champions Sporting Lisbon at the Estadio Joao Cardoso last weekend.

A 29th-minute strike from Goncalo Inacio and a brace from Pablo Sarabia put the Leoes three goals up before Spanish defender Manu pulled one back in the 71st minute.

Tondela head into the weekend winless in all but one of their last nine league outings — claiming two draws and losing six — with a 3-1 victory at Maritimo on April 3 being the only exception.

This poor run has been down to their struggles at the defensive end of the pitch, where Nuno Campos's side currently hold the league's worst record with 58 goals conceded and have failed to keep a clean sheet since October's 2-0 win at Belenenses.

Moreirense Primeira Liga form:

Tondela Primeira Liga form:

Tondela form (all competitions):

Team News

Tondela's Salvador Agra celebrates scoring their first goal with teammates in August 2021 © Reuters

Moreirense will be without veteran midfielder Fabio Pacheco as the 33-year-old is suspended for receiving his marching orders in the game against Gil Vicente last Friday.

Twenty-eight-year-old Jefferson put on a show in the aforementioned game and we expect the Brazilian to team up with Goncalo Franco at the centre of the park.

Having missed seven straight games through injury, Steven Vitoria was named as an unused substitute last time out and the 35-year-old could finally return to action this weekend.

Tondela, on the other hand, will have to make do with the absence of Portuguese defender Jota Goncalves, who has been out of action since last September through injury.

Atalanta loanee Simone Muratore is also out of contention for the CDT Auriverdes as he continues his long road to full fitness after suffering an injury back in October.

Moreirense possible starting lineup:
Pasinato; Frimpong, Rosic, Jorge, Mota; Mirallas, Franco, Jefferson; Santos, Luis, Martins

Tondela possible starting lineup:
Trigueira; Manu, Alves, Sagnam; Borges, Augusto, Undabarrena, Bebeto; Barbosa, Agra, Dadashov

SM words green background

We say: Moreirense 1-1 Tondela

Saturday's game could potentially determine Moreirense and Tondela's race against the drop as they currently find themselves in the relegation zone. We predict they will both take a cautious approach in a bid to avoid defeat and settle for a point apiece.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Moreirense win with a probability of 40.89%. A win for Tondela had a probability of 32.66% and a draw had a probability of 26.4%.

The most likely scoreline for a Moreirense win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.5%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.63%) and 2-0 (7.21%). The likeliest Tondela win was 0-1 (9.16%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.57%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 7.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Moreirense would win this match.