A key battle in the race for top six spots in the League One table will take place on Saturday, as fifth-placed Oxford United welcome 10th-placed Bolton Wanderers.

While the visitors sit 11 points behind their opponents, they have given themselves a chance of a playoff finish thanks to an eye-catching run of form in England's third tier.

Match preview

Oxford United's Matt Taylor celebrates scoring their first goal with teammates on February 1, 2022 © Reuters

Having set their sights on a top-six finish this season, Oxford United enjoyed a strong first half to the campaign, and their claim was strengthened by a strong run of results in the early stages of the new year.

After suffering consecutive defeats, Karl Robinson's men bounced back impressively, earning 10 points from their next four outings, with a 7-2 thrashing of Gillingham a particular highlight alongside wins over fellow promotion-chasers Sheffield Wednesday and Portsmouth.

In that eye-catching victory, Cameron Brannagan converted four penalties alongside goals from Billy Bodin, Matty Taylor and Anthony Forde, but their unbeaten run was put to an end last time out.

The U's met Accrington Stanley away from home, and they were sent back to Oxfordshire empty-handed as John O'Sullivan and Ethan Hamilton got on the scoresheet in a 2-0 home win.

Despite that, Robinson's men remain fifth in League One with several of the top sides stagnating, although, with only one point between themselves and seventh-placed Sheffield Wednesday, they will be desperate to return to winning ways to keep hold of their top-six status.

Ian Evatt pictured in May 2018 © Reuters

They face the tough task of welcoming one of the league's form sides, as Bolton arrive looking to extend a five-game unbeaten run.

After four consecutive third-tier defeats left them on 29 points from 25 games, the Trotters' faint hopes of earning a playoff spot looked all but over, but Ian Evatt's side have managed to turn their form around in eye-catching fashion.

They arrested their slump with four straight victories, defeating Ipswich Town, Shrewsbury Town, Cambridge United and promotion-chasing Sunderland consecutively, netting 11 goals and not conceding in the process before they were halted by a draw with Morecambe.

The Lancashire outfit then made an instant return to winning ways on Tuesday at home to Charlton Athletic, as Will Aimson netted the decisive goal in the final 10 minutes of a 2-1 victory.

That saw Evatt's men move within 11 points of the top six, and, while they will still require a particularly strong end to the season, the Trotters will be pleased that they have a slim chance of booking a place in the playoffs, with a victory over a rival seen as crucial on Saturday.

Oxford United League One form:

Bolton Wanderers League One form:

Team News

Oxford United's manager Karl Robinson pictured with Cameron Brannagan on March 2, 2021 © Reuters

Alex Rodriguez should again be Oxford United's only absentee, as the Spaniard continues to battle through a long-term injury.

While Billy Bodin and Sam Winnall will be pushing to start, the line should again be led by proven League One marksman Matty Taylor, who has netted 14 goals in the third tier so far this term.

He will be supported by former Liverpool prospect Cameron Branagan, who has scored nine league goals this season including four in the thrashing of Gillingham.

Given their strong run of form, Bolton Wanderers should again field a relatively unchanged starting XI, with Gethin Jones, Ricardo Santos and Will Aimson continuing to form a solid back three.

At the other end of the pitch, Oladapo Afolayan and Dion Charles form a potent from line with the likes of Kyle Dempsey and Amadou Bakayoko battling to support the duo.

Oxford United possible starting lineup:
Stevens; Forde, Moore, Brown, Seddon; Kane, McGuane; Williams, Branagan, Bodin; Taylor

Bolton Wanderers possible starting lineup:
Trafford; Jones, Santos, Aimson; Fossey, Williams, Morley, John; Bakayoko; Charles, Afolayan

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We say: Oxford United 1-2 Bolton Wanderers

While Oxford have been the stronger side over the course of the season, the visitors find themselves in a formidable run of form, and we fancy them to extend their unbeaten streak with another hard-fought win.

Saturday certainly presents a particularly tricky test for Evatt's men, but, with sky-high confidence and the need to continue earning results to keep their playoff hopes alive, they will be difficult to stop.

Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting under 3.5 goals in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Oxford United win with a probability of 54.97%. A draw had a probability of 23.3% and a win for Bolton Wanderers had a probability of 21.68%.

The most likely scoreline for a Oxford United win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.83%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.82%) and 2-0 (9.61%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.07%), while for a Bolton Wanderers win it was 0-1 (6.25%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 1.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Bolton Wanderers would win this match.