Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Lisbon win with a probability of 68.87%. A draw had a probability of 18.6% and a win for Estrela Amadora had a probability of 12.57%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Lisbon win was 0-2 with a probability of 11.86%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (10.8%) and 1-2 (9.68%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.82%), while for a Estrela Amadora win it was 1-0 (4.02%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Sporting Lisbon would win this match.
Result | ||
Estrela Amadora | Draw | Sporting Lisbon |
12.57% ( -0.15) | 18.57% ( -0.05) | 68.87% ( 0.21) |
Both teams to score 49.58% ( -0.31) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
57.94% ( -0.16) | 42.05% ( 0.16) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
35.54% ( -0.16) | 64.46% ( 0.16) |
Estrela Amadora Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
55.79% ( -0.35) | 44.21% ( 0.35) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
19.7% ( -0.29) | 80.3% ( 0.29) |
Sporting Lisbon Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
88.87% ( 0.01) | 11.13% ( -0.01) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
64.44% ( 0.02) | 35.56% ( -0.02) |
Score Analysis |
Estrela Amadora | Draw | Sporting Lisbon |
1-0 @ 4.02% ( -0.01) 2-1 @ 3.6% ( -0.04) 2-0 @ 1.64% ( -0.02) 3-2 @ 1.08% ( -0.02) 3-1 @ 0.98% ( -0.02) Other @ 1.26% Total : 12.57% | 1-1 @ 8.82% ( -0.02) 0-0 @ 4.92% ( 0.04) 2-2 @ 3.95% ( -0.05) Other @ 0.88% Total : 18.57% | 0-2 @ 11.86% ( 0.1) 0-1 @ 10.8% ( 0.08) 1-2 @ 9.68% ( -0.02) 0-3 @ 8.68% ( 0.07) 1-3 @ 7.08% ( -0.01) 0-4 @ 4.77% ( 0.04) 1-4 @ 3.89% ( -0) 2-3 @ 2.89% ( -0.03) 0-5 @ 2.09% ( 0.02) 1-5 @ 1.71% ( -0) 2-4 @ 1.59% ( -0.02) Other @ 3.83% Total : 68.86% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Sporting Lisbon | 34 | 29 | 3 | 2 | 96 | 29 | 67 | 90 |
2 | Benfica | 34 | 25 | 5 | 4 | 77 | 28 | 49 | 80 |
3 | Porto | 34 | 22 | 6 | 6 | 63 | 27 | 36 | 72 |
4 | Braga | 34 | 21 | 5 | 8 | 71 | 50 | 21 | 68 |
5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 34 | 19 | 6 | 9 | 52 | 38 | 14 | 63 |
6 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 34 | 16 | 7 | 11 | 36 | 35 | 1 | 55 |
7 | AroucaArouca | 34 | 13 | 7 | 14 | 54 | 50 | 4 | 46 |
8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 34 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 37 | 41 | -4 | 42 |
9 | Casa Pia | 34 | 10 | 8 | 16 | 38 | 50 | -12 | 38 |
10 | SC FarenseFarense | 34 | 10 | 7 | 17 | 46 | 51 | -5 | 37 |
11 | Rio AveRio Ave | 34 | 6 | 19 | 9 | 38 | 43 | -5 | 37 |
12 | Gil Vicente | 34 | 9 | 9 | 16 | 42 | 52 | -10 | 36 |
13 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 34 | 9 | 6 | 19 | 49 | 58 | -9 | 33 |
14 | Estrela Amadora | 34 | 7 | 12 | 15 | 33 | 53 | -20 | 33 |
15 | BoavistaBoavista | 34 | 7 | 11 | 16 | 39 | 62 | -23 | 32 |
16 | PortimonensePortimonense | 34 | 8 | 8 | 18 | 39 | 72 | -33 | 32 |
R | Vizela | 34 | 5 | 11 | 18 | 36 | 66 | -30 | 26 |
R | ChavesChaves | 34 | 5 | 8 | 21 | 31 | 72 | -41 | 23 |
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