Serie A

Serie A | Gameweek 12

Oct 30, 2022 at 2pm UK

Stadio Alberto Picco

Spezia
1 - 2
Fiorentina

N'Zola (35')
Nikolaou (7'), Gyasi (24'), Ekdal (61'), Amian (70'), N'Zola (90+4')
Nikolaou (82')

FT(HT: 1-1)

Milenkovic (14'), Cabral (90')
Ikone (20'), Amrabat (21'), Maleh (90+5')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Serie A clash between Spezia and Fiorentina, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Spezia

All competitions

Serie A

Last Game: Salernitana 1-0 Spezia
Saturday, October 22 at 2pm in Serie A

Goals
for

Fiorentina

All competitions

Serie A

Last Game: Fiorentina 2-1 Istanbul
Thursday, October 27 at 5.45pm in Europa Conference League

Goals
for

Top scorers

We said: Spezia 2-2 Fiorentina

Both teams feature in the top three for goals conceded during the opening 15 minutes of Serie A matches, so a fast start could be on the cards. As either side has defensive frailties, a share of the spoils might be the likeliest result - particularly given Spezia's strength on home soil. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fiorentina win with a probability of 51.58%. A win for Spezia had a probability of 24.78% and a draw had a probability of 23.6%.

The most likely scoreline for a Fiorentina win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.81%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.7%) and 0-2 (8.54%). The likeliest Spezia win was 1-0 (6.39%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.13%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Fiorentina would win this match.

Result
Spezia	Draw	Fiorentina
24.78% ( 0.2)	23.64% ( 0)	51.58% ( -0.2)

Both teams to score 55.96% (

0.2)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

54.85% (

0.16)

45.14% (

-0.16)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

32.51% (

0.16)

67.49% (

-0.16)

Spezia Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

67.85% (

0.25)

32.15% (

-0.26)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

31.37% (

0.29)

68.63% (

-0.29)

Fiorentina Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

82.47% (

-0.02)

17.52% (

0.01)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

51.95% (

-0.02)

48.04% (

0.02)

Score Analysis

Spezia 24.78%

Fiorentina 51.58%

Draw 23.64%

Spezia	Draw	Fiorentina
1-0 @ 6.39% ( -0) 2-1 @ 6.32% ( 0.04) 2-0 @ 3.63% ( 0.02) 3-1 @ 2.39% ( 0.03) 3-2 @ 2.08% ( 0.03) 3-0 @ 1.37% ( 0.02) Other @ 2.6% Total : 24.78%	1-1 @ 11.13% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 5.63% ( -0.04) 2-2 @ 5.5% ( 0.03) 3-3 @ 1.21% ( 0.01) Other @ 0.16% Total : 23.64%	0-1 @ 9.81% ( -0.07) 1-2 @ 9.7% ( -0.01) 0-2 @ 8.54% ( -0.07) 1-3 @ 5.63% ( -0.01) 0-3 @ 4.96% ( -0.04) 2-3 @ 3.19% ( 0.02) 1-4 @ 2.45% ( -0) 0-4 @ 2.16% ( -0.02) 2-4 @ 1.39% ( 0.01) Other @ 3.74% Total : 51.58%