Taca da Liga | Group Stage

Dec 22, 2023 at 8.15pm UK

Estadio da Madeira (Funchal (Ilha da Madeira))

Nacional
1 - 3
Braga

Gomes (62')
Margarido (0'), Gustavo (70'), Esteves (74'), Witi (77')

FT(HT: 0-3)

Moutinho (16' pen.), Niakate (24'), Horta (44')
Niakate (45+4'), Moutinho (86')

Preview

Data Analysis

Lineups

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Friday's Taca da Liga clash between Nacional and Braga, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Nacional

All competitions

Taca da Liga

Last Game: Nacional 0-0 Casa Pia (6-5 pen.)
Saturday, November 25 at 3pm in Taca de Portugal

Braga

All competitions

Taca da Liga

Last Game: Braga 0-1 Benfica
Sunday, December 17 at 8.30pm in Primeira Liga

Goals
for

Top scorers

While Nacional have been very good in Liga Portugal 2 this season, they face a huge step up in class of opponents here and are likely to struggle to claim a point in this group. Despite Braga heading into this match following back-to-back cup and league defeats, we fancy the Primeira Liga outfit to secure the win and their place in the next round. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Braga win with a probability of 54.8%. A win for Nacional had a probability of 23.14% and a draw had a probability of 22.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a Braga win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.79%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.53%) and 0-2 (8.25%). The likeliest Nacional win was 2-1 (6.01%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.12%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 6.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Braga would win this match.

Result
Nacional	Draw	Braga
23.14% ( -0.02)	22.06% ( -0.01)	54.8% ( 0.04)

Both teams to score 59.44% (

0.03)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

60.35% (

0.05)

39.65% (

-0.04)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

38% (

0.05)

62% (

-0.04)

Nacional Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

69.48% (

0.01)

30.52% (

-0)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

33.25% (

0.01)

66.74% (

-0)

Braga Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

85.56% (

0.03)

14.44% (

-0.03)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

57.61% (

0.06)

42.39% (

-0.05)

Score Analysis

Nacional 23.14%

Braga 54.8%

Draw 22.06%

Nacional	Draw	Braga
2-1 @ 6.01% ( -0) 1-0 @ 5.23% ( -0.01) 2-0 @ 3.1% ( -0) 3-1 @ 2.38% ( -0) 3-2 @ 2.3% 3-0 @ 1.23% ( -0) Other @ 2.9% Total : 23.14%	1-1 @ 10.12% ( -0.01) 2-2 @ 5.81% ( 0) 0-0 @ 4.41% ( -0.01) 3-3 @ 1.48% ( 0) Other @ 0.23% Total : 22.06%	1-2 @ 9.79% ( 0) 0-1 @ 8.53% ( -0.01) 0-2 @ 8.25% 1-3 @ 6.32% ( 0.01) 0-3 @ 5.32% ( 0.01) 2-3 @ 3.75% ( 0) 1-4 @ 3.06% ( 0.01) 0-4 @ 2.58% ( 0.01) 2-4 @ 1.81% ( 0) 1-5 @ 1.18% ( 0) 0-5 @ 1% ( 0) Other @ 3.21% Total : 54.8%