With Switzerland's previous two games resulting in goalless draws, we expect Saturday's last-16 tie to be another cagey affair. Spain may have to be patient in their quest to break down the Switzerland defence, but we think that they have enough quality in the final third to find a way through and claim a narrow victory. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Spain Women win with a probability of 60.62%. A draw had a probability of 21.6% and a win for Switzerland Women had a probability of 17.73%.

The most likely scoreline for a Spain Women win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.95%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.58%) and 1-2 (9.93%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.27%), while for a Switzerland Women win it was 1-0 (5.32%). The actual scoreline of 1-5 was predicted with a 1.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Spain Women would win this match.

Result
Switzerland Women	Draw	Spain Women
17.73% ( 1.07)	21.65% ( 1.39)	60.62% ( -2.46)

Both teams to score 52.04% (

-2.45)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

54.71% (

-4.35)

45.29% (

4.35)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

32.37% (

-4.3)

67.63% (

4.3)

Switzerland Women Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

60.85% (

-1.33)

39.15% (

1.33)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

24.14% (

-1.27)

75.86% (

1.28)

Spain Women Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

85.51% (

-2.11)

14.48% (

2.11)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

57.53% (

-4.24)

42.46% (

4.24)

Score Analysis

Switzerland Women 17.73%

Spain Women 60.61%

Draw 21.65%

Switzerland Women	Draw	Spain Women
1-0 @ 5.32% ( 0.77) 2-1 @ 4.82% ( 0.19) 2-0 @ 2.49% ( 0.28) 3-1 @ 1.51% ( 0.01) 3-2 @ 1.46% ( -0.11) Other @ 2.14% Total : 17.73%	1-1 @ 10.27% ( 0.76) 0-0 @ 5.67% ( 0.99) 2-2 @ 4.66% ( -0.18) 3-3 @ 0.94% ( -0.15) Other @ 0.11% Total : 21.65%	0-1 @ 10.95% ( 1.17) 0-2 @ 10.58% ( 0.37) 1-2 @ 9.93% ( -0.01) 0-3 @ 6.82% ( -0.3) 1-3 @ 6.39% ( -0.53) 0-4 @ 3.29% ( -0.42) 1-4 @ 3.09% ( -0.53) 2-3 @ 3% ( -0.37) 2-4 @ 1.45% ( -0.31) 0-5 @ 1.27% ( -0.28) 1-5 @ 1.19% ( -0.32) Other @ 2.65% Total : 60.61%