World Cup

World Cup Qualifying - South America | Group Stage

Nov 16, 2023 at 8pm UK

Estadio Hernando Siles

Bolivia
2 - 0
Peru

Vaca (20'), Vaca (87')
Justiniano (30'), Vaca (45+1')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Callens (34'), Advincula (87'), Gallese (87'), Reyna (90+2')

Preview

Data Analysis

Lineups

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's World Cup Qualifying - South America clash between Bolivia and Peru, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Bolivia

All competitions

World Cup Qualifying

Last Game: Paraguay 1-0 Bolivia
Tuesday, October 17 at 11.30pm in World Cup Qualifying - South America

Current CONMEBOL World Cup qualifying Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Argentina	4	7	12
2	Uruguay	4	3	7
3	Brazil	4	3	7
4	Venezuela	4	3	7
5	Ecuador	4	1	7
6	Colombia	4	1	6
7	Paraguay	4	-1	4
8	Chile	4	-3	4
9	Peru	4	-5	1
10	Bolivia	4	-9	0

Peru

All competitions

World Cup Qualifying

Last Game: Peru 0-2 Argentina
Wednesday, October 18 at 3am in World Cup Qualifying - South America

Current CONMEBOL World Cup qualifying Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Argentina	4	7	12
2	Uruguay	4	3	7
3	Brazil	4	3	7
4	Venezuela	4	3	7
5	Ecuador	4	1	7
6	Colombia	4	1	6
7	Paraguay	4	-1	4
8	Chile	4	-3	4
9	Peru	4	-5	1
10	Bolivia	4	-9	0

On the back of poor starts to the qualifying campaign, both nations will see Thursday's contest as a good opportunity to get up and running with a first win, but with the visitors perhaps boasting more quality and the hosts often faring well in La Paz, despite their recent results on home soil, we see a share of the points as the most likely outcome this week. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Peru win with a probability of 38.94%. A win for Bolivia had a probability of 33.38% and a draw had a probability of 27.7%.

The most likely scoreline for a Peru win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.48%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.17%) and 0-2 (7.19%). The likeliest Bolivia win was 1-0 (10.43%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.05%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 5.9% likelihood.

Result
Bolivia	Draw	Peru
33.38% ( -0.69)	27.68% ( -0.05)	38.94% ( 0.73)

Both teams to score 48.5% (

0.02)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

42.74% (

0.08)

57.26% (

-0.08)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

21.9% (

0.06)

78.1% (

-0.06)

Bolivia Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

67.93% (

-0.42)

32.07% (

0.42)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

31.46% (

-0.48)

68.54% (

0.48)

Peru Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

71.4% (

0.47)

28.6% (

-0.47)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

35.6% (

0.58)

64.4% (

-0.58)

Score Analysis

Bolivia 33.38%

Peru 38.94%

Draw 27.67%

Bolivia	Draw	Peru
1-0 @ 10.43% ( -0.15) 2-1 @ 7.43% ( -0.1) 2-0 @ 5.93% ( -0.16) 3-1 @ 2.82% ( -0.07) 3-0 @ 2.25% ( -0.09) 3-2 @ 1.76% ( -0.02) Other @ 2.77% Total : 33.38%	1-1 @ 13.05% ( -0.02) 0-0 @ 9.17% ( -0.03) 2-2 @ 4.65% Other @ 0.8% Total : 27.67%	0-1 @ 11.48% ( 0.12) 1-2 @ 8.17% ( 0.09) 0-2 @ 7.19% ( 0.16) 1-3 @ 3.41% ( 0.08) 0-3 @ 3% ( 0.11) 2-3 @ 1.94% ( 0.03) 1-4 @ 1.07% ( 0.04) 0-4 @ 0.94% ( 0.04) Other @ 1.75% Total : 38.94%