AC Milan will be looking to end their 2019-20 Serie A campaign on a positive note when they welcome Cagliari to San Siro on Saturday night for their final match of the season.

Stefano Pioli's side will finish sixth in the table regardless of what happens on the final weekend, but Cagliari could finish as high as 10th if they triumph against the Red and Blacks.

Match preview

AC Milan manager Stefano Pioli pictured in February 2020 © Reuters

Milan are unbeaten in their 12 matches since returning to action following the lockdown period, including 11 in Serie A, which has seen them consolidate sixth spot in the division ahead of the final weekend.

Pioli's side have been unable to launch a top-four challenge this term, currently sitting 15 points behind fourth-placed Lazio, but there have been plenty of positive signs since returning to the field in March.

The Red and Blacks, who have won 18, drawn nine and lost 10 of their 37 league matches this season, will enter this contest off the back of an impressive 4-1 victory over Sampdoria on Wednesday night.

Milan have actually now won four of their last five in Italy's top flight, while they have beaten Lazio and Juventus, in addition to drawing with Atalanta BC, over the last few weeks.

I Rossoneri only have the seventh-best home record in Serie A this season, though, dropping points in 10 of their 18 matches at San Siro, with their form on the road superior.

Cagliari boss Walter Zenga pictured in April 2018 © Reuters

Cagliari will be the underdogs heading into Saturday's clash, but they will be full of confidence following an impressive 2-0 victory over the champions Juve on Wednesday night.

The Old Lady secured the title at the weekend courtesy of a win over Sampdoria, but it was still a huge result for Cagliari, who scored twice in the first half against the Old Lady through Luca Gagliano and Giovanni Simeone.

Walter Zenga's side were actually on an eight-game winless run in the league ahead of the clash with Maurizio Sarri's side, having struggled for results since beating SPAL and Torino at the end of June.

Gli Isolani are currently 13th but could finish as high as 10th this weekend, which would represent their best placing at this level of football since claiming ninth at the end of the 2008-09 season.

Milan Serie A form: DWWWDW

Cagliari Serie A form: DLDLLW

Team News

Juventus' Cristiano Ronaldo in action with AC Milan's Ismael Bennacer in February 2020 © Reuters

Milan will again be without the services of Andrea Conti, Alessio Romagnoli and Mateo Musacchio through injury, but the Italian giants did not pick up any fresh fitness concerns against Sampdoria.

Theo Hernandez and Ismael Bennacer returned from suspensions on Wednesday night and should retain their spots in the XI for this game, but there could be a change in attack with fit-again Samu Castillejo taking the place of Alexis Saelemaekers.

Zlatan Ibrahimovic scored a brace against Sampdoria, making it four goals in his last three appearances, and the veteran striker should keep his spot at the tip of the attack.

As for Cagliari, Radja Nainggolan, Luca Pellegrini, Christian Oliva and Leonardo Pavoletti remain on the sidelines through injury, but Nahitan Nandez is back from suspension.

Zenga could keep faith with the same side that started against Juve, meaning that Gagliano is likely to be rewarded with another start alongside Simeone and Joao Pedro in the final third of the field.

Milan possible starting lineup:
Donnarumma; Calabria, Kjaer, Gabbia, Hernandez; Kessie, Bennacer; Castillejo, Calhanoglu, Rebic; Ibrahimovic

Cagliari possible starting lineup:
Cragno; Walukiewicz, Ceppitelli, Klavan; Farago, Rog, Ionita, Mattiello; Pedro; Simeone, Gagliano

We say: Milan 2-0 Cagliari

Cagliari will enter the match off the back of a morale-boosting win over Juve, but we are finding it difficult to back against Milan, who have been in impressive form since returning to the field last month. Cagliari are capable of causing some problems, but we are backing a two-goal home success in this game.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AC Milan win with a probability of 56.38%. A draw had a probability of 22.4% and a win for Cagliari had a probability of 21.22%.

The most likely scoreline for an AC Milan win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.9%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.88%) and 2-0 (9.29%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.53%), while for a Cagliari win it was 1-2 (5.61%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 5.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that AC Milan would win this match.