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Serie A | Gameweek 3

Oct 4, 2020 at 11.30am UK

Stadio Atleti Azzurri d'Italia

Atalanta
5 - 2
Cagliari

Muriel (7'), Papu (29'), Pasalic (37'), Zapata (42'), Lammers (81')

FT(HT: 4-1)

Godin (24'), Pedro (52')

Preview: Atalanta BC vs. Cagliari - prediction, team news, lineups

By Darren Plant, Senior Reporter | 02 October 2020

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Serie A game between Atalanta BC and Cagliari, including team news and predicted lineups.

Atalanta BC head into their third Serie A fixture of the season against Cagliari on Sunday looking to extend their 100% record.

As for the visitors, they have claimed just one point from their opening two matches with Eusebio Di Francesco in the dugout.

Match preview

Atalanta coach Gian Piero Gasperini pictured on August 25, 2019 © Reuters

While Atalanta defeated Torino by a 4-2 scoreline in their opening game of the season, it was a performance which did little to end suggestions that they may have peaked during the last campaign.

However, the manner of their 4-1 success over Lazio in midweek sent a clear message to their title rivals that they have the potential to build on last season's surprise top-four finish and run to the Champions League quarter-finals.

Gian Piero Gasperini will want to keep his side's feet on the ground, but that may be difficult if they maintain their free-scoring form in the final third.

After the disappointment of missing out on 100 goals in Serie A last season, there is renewed motivation to write the wrongs of their average end to the previous domestic campaign.

Although fixtures with Napoli and Inter Milan are not too far away, Atalanta have a favourable start to the season, and taking full advantage will increase the pressure on the teams around them.

As far as Cagliari are concerned, beginning 2020-21 with meetings against Sassuolo, Lazio and Atalanta represents arguably the toughest opening triple-header in the division ahead of the international break.

Di Francesco would have naturally wanted an easier bedding-in period on his return to the dugout, but he will be satisfied that a point was earned in their first fixture.

Nevertheless, he must find a way to keep this team progressing in the right direction, something which was not helped with a 2-0 reverse against Lazio.

Bringing in veteran centre-back Diego Godin is a big plus for Di Francesco, but he now faces a fight to prevent Nahitan Nandez from linking up with Leeds United.

Atalanta BC Serie A form: WW

Cagliari Serie A form: DL

Team News

Atalanta's Luis Muriel celebrates scoring their third goal against SPAL on August 25, 2019 © Reuters

Gasperini is likely to make changes to his starting XI, with Luis Muriel among the players who will be hoping for a recall.

Marten de Roon could come back into the team at the expense of Mario Pasalic, while Mattia Caldara may be restored to the Atalanta backline.

Godin is expected to make his debut in the Cagliari defence, taking the spot of Ragnar Klavan.

Leonardo Pavoletti could also be provided with an opportunity in place of Riccardo Sottil.

Atalanta BC possible starting lineup:
Sportiello; Caldara, Palomino, Toloi; Hateboer, Freuler, Pasalic, Gosens; Gomez; Muriel, Zapata

Cagliari possible starting lineup:
Cragno; Zappa, Walukiewicz, Godin, Lykogiannis; Nandez, Marin, Rog; Pavoletti, Simeone, Pedro

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We say: Atalanta BC 4-0 Cagliari

While Cagliari have performed admirably in defence, this game has one-way traffic written all over it. Providing that complacency is not an issue, expect Atalanta to cruise to victory at the weekend.

Top betting tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting a home win in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atalanta BC win with a probability of 63.39%. A draw had a probability of 20.1% and a win for Cagliari had a probability of 16.47%.

The most likely scoreline for an Atalanta BC win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.23%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.93%) and 1-0 (9.74%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.45%), while for a Cagliari win it was 1-2 (4.58%). The actual scoreline of 5-2 was predicted with a 0.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Atalanta BC would win this match.