Atletico Madrid will be looking to build on Wednesday's impressive victory over Osasuna when they continue their La Liga season at home to Real Valladolid on Saturday night.

Diego Simeone's side are currently locked in a battle for a top-four spot, while Valladolid occupy 14th position in the table, eight points clear of the relegation zone in Spain's top flight.

Match preview

Atletico Madrid midfielder Saul Niguez pictured in March 2020 © Reuters

There is no getting away from the fact that Atletico have been short of their best in Spain's top flight this season, picking up just 12 wins from their 29 matches, which has left them some way off the top of the table.

Indeed, the gap from fourth-placed Atletico to leaders Barcelona is 15 points, but Simeone's side, having been sixth entering the lockdown period, are now just two points off third-placed Sevilla.

Real Sociedad will have the chance to reclaim fourth on Thursday night, but the capital giants will fancy their chances of claiming a Champions League spot for the 2020-21 campaign despite some disappointing form.

Simeone's team have only lost four of their 29 league games this term, which is the second-best record in the league behind Real Madrid. They have only lost once at the Wanda Metropolitano in La Liga this term, meanwhile, and impressively overcame Liverpool in the Champions League back in March.

Atletico played out a 1-1 draw with Athletic Bilbao on June 14 but returned to winning ways on Wednesday with a 5-0 success at Osasuna, where Portuguese attacker Joao Felix scored an impressive brace.

Atletico Madrid's Hector Herrera in action with Real Valladolid's Mohammed Salisu in La Liga on October 6, 2019 © Reuters

As for Valladolid, a record of seven wins, 12 draws and 10 defeats from their 29 matches has brought them 33 points, which is enough for 14th spot in the table at this stage.

Pucela are eight points clear of the relegation zone, meaning that it would be a surprise if they were pulled into trouble, even with a lot of football still be played in the coming weeks.

Sergio Gonzalez's side will also enter this match off the back of two positive results, having beaten Leganes and drawn with Celta Vigo in their two fixtures since the return of the season earlier this month.

Valladolid held Atletico to a goalless draw in the reverse match earlier this season, although they have not beaten the capital side away from home in Spain's top flight since February 2009.

Atletico La Liga form: DWDDDW
Atletico form (all competitions): WDDWDW

Valladolid La Liga form: LWLLWD

Team News

Barcelona's Antoine Griezmann in action with Atletico Madrid's Alvaro Morata in La Liga on December 1, 2019 © Reuters

Atletico are still expected to be without both Sime Vrsaljko and Felipe for this weekend's contest, but the capital side did not pick up any new fitness concerns against Osasuna.

Alvaro Morata, Kieran Trippier and Thomas Partey were all left out of the starting XI on Wednesday but should return for this match as Simeone prepares to shuffle his pack.

Diego Costa could be the player to drop out in the final third of the field, while Yannick Ferreira Carrasco is putting pressure on Angel Correa for a spot out wide.

As for Valladolid, Sandro Ramirez is expected to be out until the start of July with a muscular problem, while Jose Antonio Caro is still on the sidelines with an arm injury.

Hatem Ben Arfa is likely to come into Gonzalez's thinking for a possible spot in the final third, although a 4-4-2 formation is expected to see Sergi Guardiola and Enes Unal once again line up in attack.

Atletico possible starting lineup:
Oblak; Trippier, Savic, Gimenez, Lodi; Correa, Thomas, Saul, Koke; Morata, Felix

Valladolid possible starting lineup:
Masip; Moyano, Fernandez, Salisu, Martinez; Plano, Alcaraz, Michel, Suarez; Unal, Guardiola

We say: Atletico 2-0 Valladolid

Valladolid's away form has been fairly solid this season, picking up four wins and four draws from their 15 matches. Atletico will be full of confidence after Wednesday's win over Osasuna, though, and we expect the home side to put another three points on the board in routine fashion.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Madrid win with a probability of 61.72%. A draw had a probability of 23.9% and a win for Real Valladolid had a probability of 14.4%.

The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Madrid win was 1-0 with a probability of 16.35%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (13.59%) and 2-1 (8.93%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.73%), while for a Real Valladolid win it was 0-1 (6.46%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 16.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Atletico Madrid in this match.