AZ Alkmaar will be aiming to close the gap between themselves and the top two as they host relegation-threatened Willem II on Sunday.
Sixteenth-placed Willem II find themselves just one point off the automatic drop zone and are in woeful form ahead of this fixture.
Match preview
© Reuters
AZ endured a stuttering start to the Eredivisie season, drawing each of their first five league games as they slipped off the pace.
They also received three red cards in those five games, and have been shown two more in the six games that followed as discipline proves to be a real issue.
However, Arne Slot's men have won five of their last six league games as they do their best to make up for their stuttering start to the campaign.
Losing their Champions League qualifier 2-0 against Dynamo Kiev saw AZ drop into the Europa League. They started their group-stage campaign well, but tapered off and ended up finishing third.
Their exit from European competition leaves them with no more distractions and enables them to focus solely on domestic football.
That bodes poorly for Willem II, who already find themselves in a dire situation, having won just twice so far this season.
Adrie Koster's side find themselves 16th and occupying the relegation playoff position after 12 games and are in very poor form.
They accrued four points from their first three league games, but have picked up just another four in the nine fixtures that followed.
AZ will prove a difficult challenge for the struggling outfit as they look to turn their season around.
AZ Eredivisie form: WWWWLW
AZ form (all competitions): DWDLLW
Willem II Eredivisie form: LLWLLL
Team News
© Reuters
AZ boss Slot has a number of injury problems ahead of Sunday's fixture.
Dani De Wit, Bruno Martins Indi, Jonas Svensson, Jordy Clasie and Ron Vlaar are all out and the quintet will not all be back until the end of January.
Willem II head coach Koster, however, has a much kinder injury list to contend with.
Elton Kabangu is back in training after being out due to COVID-19, while Dries Saddiki is a doubt with injury.
Both have the potential to feature, however, and the rest of the squad is fully fit.
AZ possible starting lineup:
Bizot; Sugawara, Hatzidiakos, Letschert, Wijndal; Reijnders, Stengs, Koopmeiners; Aboukhal, Boadu, Karlsson
Willem II possible starting lineup:
Ruiter; Owusu, Heerkens, Peters, Kohn; Saglam, Van der Heijden, Ndayishimiye; Nunnely, Pavlidis, Kohlert
We say: AZ 2-1 Willem II
AZ are in great form and are clear favourites to beat struggling Willem II, especially at home. However, they do not have a habit of racking up big scorelines and could win by just a narrow margin.
Top betting tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ win with a probability of 63.74%. A draw had a probability of 20.5% and a win for Willem II had a probability of 15.71%.
The most likely scoreline for an AZ win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.06%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.9%) and 2-1 (9.9%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.75%), while for a Willem II win it was 0-1 (4.8%). The actual scoreline of 5-3 was predicted with a 0.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that AZ would win this match.
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