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Belarusian Premier League | Gameweek 11

May 31, 2020 at 4pm UK

City Stadium

BATE
1 - 0
Isloch

Milic (39' pen.)

FT(HT: 1-0)

Kontsevoy (38'), Yansane (58')

Preview: BATE Borisov vs. Isloch - prediction, form guide, head to head

By Darren Plant, Senior Reporter | 29 May 2020

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Belarusian top-flight clash between BATE Borisov and Isloch, including predictions, form guide and head-to-head records.

BATE Borisov head into Sunday's encounter with Isloch knowing that an eighth successive win in all competitions will keep the club at the top of the Belarusian top flight.

Despite suffering back-to-back defeats, Isloch sit in sixth position after 10 games, seven points adrift of their hosts.

Match preview

Isloch players celebrate in April 2020 © Reuters

Having missed out on the league title last season, BATE seemingly felt the pressure last weekend when struggling to get over the line in the cup final against Dinamo Brest.

Only a dramatic last-gasp winner in extra time from Zakhar Volkov secured another piece of silverware for BATE, but the manner of the success will at least mean that complacency will no longer be an issue going forward.

In the league, Kirill Alshevsky has watched his team score 18 goals from half-a-dozen outings, strikes which have been shared around the squad.

Despite netting six more times than any other team in the division, no player has contributed more than four times, a statistic which Alshevsky will perceive to be positive more so than negative.

Nemanja Milic has been the star man in recent games, netting each of his goals in BATE's last three top-flight matches.

Although Isloch are clear underdogs heading into this meeting, that may suit Vitaly Zhukovsky's team as they look to get back to winning ways.

While successive setbacks are not ideal, their last defeat came by a 2-1 scoreline to high-flying Energetik-BGU, who required a last-minute goal to seal their fourth win in a row.

That suggests that Isloch are not too far away from the level required to remain in the upper echelons of this division, something which will be put to the test in the toughest game on their schedule.

However, Isloch are yet to record a single point on their travels since the beginning of the campaign, netting just once from three fixtures.

BATE Borisov form: WWWWWW

Isloch form: WWLWLL

Head To Head

Since July 2016, these two teams have met as many as 13 times, with BATE recording seven wins and three draws in all competitions.

However, in stark contrast to the historical figures as a whole, Isloch are on a five-match unbeaten streak against the nation's most successful team.

The last campaign's corresponding fixture, held in November, ended in a 4-2 triumph for the visitors.

We say: BATE Borisov 3-1 Isloch

Everything points to BATE recording yet another victory this weekend. Although they required extra time to win the domestic cup, that near failure will rid the team of any complacency heading into this contest, potentially spelling trouble for the visitors.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a BATE Borisov win with a probability of 62.53%. A draw had a probability of 20.9% and a win for Isloch had a probability of 16.61%.

The most likely scoreline for a BATE Borisov win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.7%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.65%) and 2-1 (9.93%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.88%), while for a Isloch win it was 0-1 (4.92%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 10.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that BATE Borisov would win this match.