Championship

[monks data]

Championship | Gameweek 44

Jul 14, 2020 at 7.45pm UK

The Den

Millwall
1 - 0
Blackburn

Bennett (20')
Woods (84'), Cooper (89')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Rankin-Costello (1'), Travis (35')

Preview: Millwall vs. Blackburn Rovers - prediction, team news, lineups

By Darren Plant, Senior Reporter | 12 July 2020

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's Championship fixture between Millwall and Blackburn Rovers, including team news and predicted lineups.

Millwall and Blackburn Rovers square off in the Championship on Tuesday night with just two points separating the clubs in the Championship table.

While the Lions are one win away from potentially breaking into the top six, Blackburn can move ahead of their hosts with victory in East London.

Match preview

Blackburn Rovers boss Tony Mowbray on June 20, 2020 © Reuters

Despite having recorded four points from their last two matches, Blackburn's run of three successive defeats immediately before that improvement looks likely proving to be decisive.

Although Rovers only sit four points adrift of the playoffs, six teams stand in their way, realistically too many with just three games remaining on their schedule.

Nevertheless, Tony Mowbray will have set his side the target of registering three successive victories against Millwall, Reading and Luton Town to keep the pressure on the clubs above them.

Having collected four points from promotion-chasing Cardiff City and West Bromwich Albion, Mowbray will feel that his players are heading in the right direction, particularly in attack with five goals coming from their last three outings.

Adam Armstrong has netted two of those strikes, taking his contribution to 14 goals and six assists for the campaign.

Like the visitors, a three-match winless streak has left Millwall as outsiders for the top six, but Gary Rowett will be delighted with his side after six points were recorded from their last three matches.

While succumbing at home to Middlesbrough was an obvious disappointment, narrow wins at Charlton Athletic and Hull City would have answered questions about his team's character.

With just two points the gap to the playoffs, as well as Queens Park Rangers and Huddersfield Town being their final two opponents, Rowett will feel that three more wins will be enough to nip in ahead of several teams over the course of the next 10 days.

Rowett's one major concern will be regarding his attack, with just three goals being scored in their last five fixtures.

Millwall Championship form: LWWDLW

Blackburn Rovers Championship form: WLLLWD

Team News

Millwall boss Gary Rowett on February 15, 2020 © Reuters

Having witnessed his side's resilient performance at Hull, Rowett is likely to keep the same starting lineup.

That would mean that the likes of Murray Wallace and Matt Smith will have to remain patient among the Millwall replacements.

Mowbray is likely to assess the fitness of Blackburn left-back Joe Rankin-Costello, who came through 90 minutes against West Brom despite initially being regarded as a fitness doubt.

After netting against the Baggies, Joe Rothwell could take the place of Bradley Johnson in midfield, while Sam Gallagher is a potential alternative to Danny Graham.

Millwall possible starting lineup:
Bialkowski; Hutchinson, Pearce, Cooper; Mitchell, Woods, Leonard, Ferguson; J.Wallace, Bennett; Bradshaw

Blackburn Rovers possible starting lineup:
Walton; Nyambe, Lenihan, Adarabioyo, Rankin-Costello; Travis, Downing, Rothwell; Samuel, Graham, Armstrong

We say: Millwall 1-1 Blackburn Rovers

With everything at stake, the general consensus is that both teams will go all out for victory. However, they will also be wary of conceding the first goal, and we feel that mindset will lead to a low-scoring draw being played out.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Millwall win with a probability of 39.35%. A win for Blackburn Rovers had a probability of 34.19% and a draw had a probability of 26.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a Millwall win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.19%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.46%) and 2-0 (6.85%). The likeliest Blackburn Rovers win was 0-1 (9.36%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.58%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 10.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Millwall in this match.