Champions League

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Champions League | Group Stage

Oct 28, 2020 at 8pm UK

Signal-Iduna-Park

Dortmund
2 - 0
Zenit

Sancho (78' pen.), Braut Haaland (90+1')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Kuzyaev (25'), Karavayev (78')

Preview: Borussia Dortmund vs. Zenit St Petersburg - prediction, team news, lineups

By Brett Curtis, Reporter | 26 October 2020

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's match between Borussia Dortmund and Zenit St Petersburg, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Borussia Dortmund host Zenit St Petersburg on Wednesday with both sides looking to secure their first points of the 2020-21 Champions League campaign in Group F.

Dortmund were disappointing in a 3-1 defeat at Lazio last week, while Zenit were humbled 2-1 at home to Club Brugge, leaving both sides with plenty of work to do in order to progress to the knockout stages.

Match preview

Borussia Dortmund winger Jadon Sancho pictured on September 26, 2020 © Reuters

Former Dortmund striker Ciro Immobile came back to haunt his former side in Lazio's 3-1 win at the Stadio Olimpico, with Erling Braut Haaland's late goal proving nothing more than a consolation once Jean-Daniel Akpa-Akpro had taken the game away from the visitors just four minutes later.

Defeat meant it was the first time BVB have lost four consecutive away games in Europe's elite competition since 1958, with six defeats in their last eight away games in the Champions League a record which simply must be improved if they are to have any aspirations of reaching another final.

Lucien Favre's side did at least bounce back in the Bundesliga at the weekend, though, comfortably dispatching Schalke 04 by three goals to nil in the Revierderby.

Indeed, Dortmund are a different beast at the Westfalenstadion, winning their three league games there this season without conceding a goal, as well as the last three Champions League matches at their home ground. A win against Zenit on Wednesday will be vital to ensure they do not fall at the first hurdle in Europe.

Zenit St Petersburg head coach Sergei Semak pictured in April 2019 © Reuters

Charles De Ketelaere's last minute winner in the 2-1 win for Brugge, whom many observers would have expected to finish bottom of Group F, has left Zenit with a real hole to dig themselves out of in order to have any chance of progressing past the Champions League group stage for the first time since the 2015-16 season.

Expectations heading into the match against Dortmund will be low, however, given that Sergei Semak's side are generally even worse travellers than their forthcoming opponents, taking a solitary point from their last five away games in the Champions League.

They also suffered a second successive 2-1 home defeat at the weekend, losing to Rubin Kazan to leave them three points behind Spartak Moscow, who are leading the Russian Premier League after 12 matches.

The St Petersburg-based side will be relying on the experience and leadership of captain Artem Dyzuba and former Liverpool defender Dejan Lovren at both ends of the pitch to have any chance of gaining a result in Germany.

Borussia Dortmund Champions League form: L
Borussia Dortmund form (all competitions): LLWWLW

Zenit St Petersburg Champions League form: L
Zenit St Petersburg form (all competitions): DWDWLL

Team News

Borussia Dortmund head coach Lucien Favre pictured on October 17, 2020 © Reuters

Favre welcomed defender Manuel Akanji back into the starting XI in the weekend's victory over Schalke, with Dortmund looking much improved defensively as a result.

Nico Schulz (torn muscle), Emre Can (coronavirus), Marcel Schmelzer and Dan-Axel Zagadou (both knee) will all be missing as defensive options for the match against Zenit, though.

Jude Bellingham became the youngest English player to start a Champions League match in the defeat at Lazio, but Favre may choose to go with the more experienced Thomas Delaney for this match.

Zenit are likely to be without forwards Malcom and Sardar Azmoun for the trip to Dortmund, with both recovering from muscle injuries.

Dyzuba will lead the line as the side's focal point, with the Russian national team captain a threat to any side on his day with his physicality and finishing.

Borussia Dortmund possible starting lineup:
Hitz; Meunier, Hummels, Akanji, Guerreiro; Witsel, Delaney; Sancho, Brandt, Reus; Haaland

Zenit St Petersburg possible starting lineup:
Kerzhakov; Karavyev, Lovren, Rakitskiy, Krugovoy; Yerokhin, Barrios, Ozdoyev, Wendel, Driussi; Dyzuba

SM words green background

We say: Borussia Dortmund 2-0 Zenit St Petersburg

Dortmund have looked much improved defensively on the whole this season, and we expect them to control the match against a side who will be lacking belief after two successive unexpected defeats and a poor away record in this competition.

Top betting tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting a home win in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Borussia Dortmund win with a probability of 58.07%. A draw had a probability of 23% and a win for Zenit St Petersburg had a probability of 18.94%.

The most likely scoreline for a Borussia Dortmund win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.94%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.71%) and 2-1 (9.81%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.93%), while for a Zenit St Petersburg win it was 0-1 (6.1%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 10.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Borussia Dortmund would win this match.