Borussia Dortmund will be looking to tighten their grip on second place in the Bundesliga when they play host to relegation-threatened Mainz 05 on Wednesday evening.

BVB have won four out of five matches since the division resumed last month, but Bayern Munich are expected to be crowned champions for an eighth successive season on Tuesday.

Match preview

Borussia Dortmund players celebrate scoring against Wolfsburg on May 23, 2020 © Reuters

Erling Braut Haaland's last-gasp winner against Fortuna Dusseldorf on Saturday - an impressive header in the fifth minute of added time - maintained Dortmund's good run of form.

Indeed, either side of the three-month hiatus, BVB have won nine of their last 10 Bundesliga matches - only losing 1-0 at home to Bayern on matchday 28 during that run.

That one loss was always likely to prove costly, though, and reigning champions Bayern can officially seal top spot with a win against Werder Bremen on Tuesday.

Lucien Favre's men are therefore left to battle it out with RB Leipzig for second place, and they hold a four-point lead on the side directly below them with three games to go.

For all his critics on the back of the Bayern defeat, Favre can be proud of his side's displays in the second half of the campaign, having collected 36 points from a possible 42.

Only once before, in their title-winning season of 2011-12, have Dortmund collected more points (38) in the second half of a Bundesliga season.

Borussia Dortmund striker Erling Braut Haaland celebrates scoring against Schalke on May 16, 2020 © Reuters

Still, the form of Jadon Sancho and Haaland - 11 goals in 12 league appearances since joining in January - has not been enough to end Bayern's domination of the German top flight.

Favre will simply be looking to end 2019-20 with three more victories, starting with all three points against a struggling Mainz side in midweek.

Achim Beierlorzer's charges have won only one of their six matches since returning to action on May 17, most recently losing 1-0 at home to Augsburg to slip down to 15th place.

The gap on Dusseldorf in the relegation playoff spot now stands at three points, so the visitors could do with snatching an unlikely point at the Westfalenstadion on Wednesday.

One sign of hope for Mainz heading into the match is that they have taken all five of their points and scored all five of their goals on the road since the Bundesliga restart.

Die Nullfunfer have only let in three goals in their three away games behind closed doors, compared to seven in their three home matches, so playing this game away from the Opel Arena could be a good thing.

Borussia Dortmund's Bundesliga form: WWLWWW
Borussia Dortmund's form (all competitions): LWWLWWW

Mainz 05's Bundesliga form: DLDLWL

Team News

Borussia Dortmund winger Jadon Sancho pictured on May 16, 2020 © Reuters

Haaland had missed Dortmund's previous two matches through injury prior to scoring a late winner from the bench last time out.

The Norway international should be fit enough to start Wednesday's match, which could lead to Julian Brandt dropping back into attacking midfield.

Thomas Delaney will play no part due to a muscle injury that will likely rule him out for the rest of the season, while Marco Reus is not expected to feature despite returning to training.

As for Mainz, Nigerian forward Taiwo Awoniyi was concussed against Augsburg and will therefore sit this one out.

Ridle Baku is back from suspension, but his return coincides with Edimilson Fernandes's ban for picking up five yellow cards.

Elsewhere, Beierlorzer must choose between Adam Szalai and Jean-Philippe Mateta up front, with the latter favourite to get the nod.

Borussia Dortmund possible starting lineup:
Burki; Piszczek, Hummels, Akanji; Hakimi, Witsel, Can, Guerreiro; Brandt, Sancho; Haaland

Mainz 05 possible starting lineup:
Muller; Brosinski, Niakhate, St. Juste, Baku; Onisiwo, Latza, Kunde, Oztunali; Quaison; Mateta

We say: Borussia Dortmund 3-0 Mainz 05

A costly defeat to title rivals Bayern aside, Dortmund have been in impressive form since the Bundesliga resumed, whereas Mainz have struggled for wins. BVB have won 15 of their last 19 league meetings with Wednesday's opponents, so we are backing a comfortable home victory.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Borussia Dortmund win with a probability of 70.8%. A draw had a probability of 16.7% and a win for Mainz 05 had a probability of 12.46%.

The most likely scoreline for a Borussia Dortmund win was 2-0 with a probability of 9.96%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.46%) and 3-0 (8.24%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.63%), while for a Mainz 05 win it was 1-2 (3.63%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 1.5% likelihood.