Bundesliga

Bundesliga | Gameweek 23

Mar 4, 2023 at 2.30pm UK

Coface Arena

Mainz
1 - 0
Hoffenheim

Barreiro (33')
Barkok (90+2')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Geiger (66'), Rudy (81'), Baumgartner (85'), Vogt (90')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Bundesliga clash between Mainz 05 and Hoffenheim, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Mainz 05

All competitions

Bundesliga

Last Game: Mainz 4-0 Borussia M'bach
Friday, February 24 at 7.30pm in Bundesliga

Goals
for

Top scorers

Hoffenheim

All competitions

Bundesliga

Last Game: Hoffenheim 0-1 Dortmund
Saturday, February 25 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga

Goals
for

Top scorers

We said: Mainz 05 2-0 Hoffenheim

On current form there is only likely to be one winner at the MEWA Arena on Saturday, and we expect Mainz to live up to their recent performances by securing another victory. Unless they can drastically turn things around, Hoffenheim look like a side destined to suffer their first-ever relegation from the Bundesliga this season. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mainz 05 win with a probability of 52.15%. A win for Hoffenheim had a probability of 24.48% and a draw had a probability of 23.4%.

The most likely scoreline for a Mainz 05 win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.73%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.61%) and 2-0 (8.52%). The likeliest Hoffenheim win was 1-2 (6.27%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.97%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Mainz 05 would win this match.

Result
Mainz 05	Draw	Hoffenheim
52.15% ( -0.39)	23.37% ( -0.18)	24.48% ( 0.57)

Both teams to score 56.54% (

1.24)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

55.77% (

1.33)

44.23% (

-1.33)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

33.39% (

1.28)

66.61% (

-1.28)

Mainz 05 Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

83.03% (

0.35)

16.98% (

-0.35)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

52.92% (

0.62)

47.08% (

-0.61)

Hoffenheim Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

68.1% (

1.21)

31.91% (

-1.2)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

31.65% (

1.35)

68.36% (

-1.35)

Score Analysis

Mainz 05 52.15%

Hoffenheim 24.48%

Draw 23.37%

Mainz 05	Draw	Hoffenheim
2-1 @ 9.73% ( -0.01) 1-0 @ 9.61% ( -0.45) 2-0 @ 8.52% ( -0.3) 3-1 @ 5.75% ( 0.06) 3-0 @ 5.04% ( -0.12) 3-2 @ 3.29% ( 0.14) 4-1 @ 2.55% ( 0.05) 4-0 @ 2.23% ( -0.03) 4-2 @ 1.46% ( 0.08) 5-1 @ 0.9% ( 0.03) Other @ 3.09% Total : 52.15%	1-1 @ 10.97% ( -0.14) 2-2 @ 5.56% ( 0.17) 0-0 @ 5.42% ( -0.32) 3-3 @ 1.25% ( 0.09) Other @ 0.17% Total : 23.37%	1-2 @ 6.27% ( 0.12) 0-1 @ 6.19% ( -0.15) 0-2 @ 3.53% ( 0.03) 1-3 @ 2.39% ( 0.12) 2-3 @ 2.12% ( 0.13) 0-3 @ 1.35% ( 0.06) Other @ 2.64% Total : 24.48%