Champions League

Champions League | First Qualifying Round | 1st Leg

Jul 12, 2023 at 3pm UK

Astana Arena

Astana
1 - 1
Dinamo Tbilisi

(Astana win 3-2 on aggregate)

Aymbetov (11')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Sigua (57')
Kalandadze (51')

Preview

Data Analysis

Lineups

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's Champions League clash between Astana and Dinamo Tbilisi, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Astana

Last Game: Astana 0-1 Rakow
Thursday, July 28 at 4pm in Europa Conference League

Dinamo Tbilisi

Last Game: Paide 1-2 Dinamo Tbilisi (6-5 pen.)
Thursday, July 14 at 5pm in Europa Conference League

We said: Astana 1-1 Dinamo Tbilisi

With the second leg scheduled for next week, both sides will likely approach the first leg with caution, so we expect Astana and Dinamo Tbilisi to play out a cagey draw on Wednesday. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Astana win with a probability of 42.76%. A win for Dinamo Tbilisi had a probability of 32.02% and a draw had a probability of 25.2%.

The most likely scoreline for an Astana win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.4%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.97%) and 2-0 (7.07%). The likeliest Dinamo Tbilisi win was 0-1 (7.92%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.92%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-1 draw for this match.

Result
Astana	Draw	Dinamo Tbilisi
42.76% ( 0.27)	25.22% ( -0.07)	32.02% ( -0.2)

Both teams to score 55.91% (

0.17)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

52.41% (

0.25)

47.59% (

-0.25)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

30.2% (

0.23)

69.79% (

-0.23)

Astana Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

77.79% (

0.23)

22.21% (

-0.24)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

44.37% (

0.35)

55.63% (

-0.36)

Dinamo Tbilisi Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

71.87% (

-0)

28.13% (

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

36.19% (

-0)

63.81% (

Score Analysis

Astana 42.76%

Dinamo Tbilisi 32.02%

Draw 25.22%

Astana	Draw	Dinamo Tbilisi
1-0 @ 9.4% ( -0.03) 2-1 @ 8.97% ( 0.03) 2-0 @ 7.07% ( 0.03) 3-1 @ 4.5% ( 0.05) 3-0 @ 3.55% ( 0.04) 3-2 @ 2.85% ( 0.03) 4-1 @ 1.69% ( 0.03) 4-0 @ 1.33% ( 0.02) 4-2 @ 1.07% ( 0.02) Other @ 2.32% Total : 42.76%	1-1 @ 11.92% ( -0.04) 0-0 @ 6.25% ( -0.07) 2-2 @ 5.69% ( 0.02) 3-3 @ 1.21% ( 0.01) Other @ 0.16% Total : 25.22%	0-1 @ 7.92% ( -0.08) 1-2 @ 7.56% ( -0.03) 0-2 @ 5.03% ( -0.05) 1-3 @ 3.2% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 2.41% ( 0.01) 0-3 @ 2.12% ( -0.02) 1-4 @ 1.01% ( -0) Other @ 2.77% Total : 32.02%