Champions League

Champions League | First Qualifying Round | 1st Leg

Jul 11, 2023 at 4.30pm UK

Victoria Stadium

Lincoln
1 - 2
Qarabag

(Qarabag FK win 6-1 on aggregate)

Gomez (25')
Yahaya (45+4'), Casciaro (72'), Lopes (78')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Xhixha (58'), Benzia (90+4')

Preview

Data Analysis

Lineups

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's Champions League clash between Lincoln Red Imps and Qarabag FK, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Lincoln Red Imps

Last Game: Lincoln 0-1 Tobol
Tuesday, July 26 at 5pm in Europa Conference League

Qarabag FK

Last Game: Gent 1-0 Qarabag (5-3 pen.)
Thursday, February 23 at 8pm in Europa Conference League

We said: Lincoln Red Imps 0-2 Qarabag FK

Qarabag have never been eliminated from the first round of Champions League qualifying before, and the Azerbaijan Premier League champions should take the first step towards avoiding that fate on Tuesday. Both sides demonstrated their attacking proficiency throughout their most recent domestic campaigns, but the visitors' European pedigree is far greater, and Qurbanov's side should put one foot in the second round before the return leg in Baku on July 19. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Qarabag FK win with a probability of 40.92%. A win for Lincoln Red Imps had a probability of 34.93% and a draw had a probability of 24.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a Qarabag FK win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.76%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.7%) and 0-2 (6.08%). The likeliest Lincoln Red Imps win was 2-1 (8.01%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.1%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-2 win for Qarabag FK in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Qarabag FK.

Result
Lincoln Red Imps	Draw	Qarabag FK
34.93% ( 12.05)	24.15% ( 0.7)	40.92% ( -12.75)

Both teams to score 60.6% (

6.22)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

58.13% (

4.32)

41.87% (

-4.33)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

35.73% (

4.22)

64.27% (

-4.22)

Lincoln Red Imps Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

76.35% (

10.72)

23.65% (

-10.72)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

42.25% (

13.33)

57.75% (

-13.33)

Qarabag FK Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

79.37% (

-3.49)

20.63% (

3.49)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

46.81% (

-5.82)

53.19% (

5.82)

Score Analysis

Lincoln Red Imps 34.93%

Qarabag FK 40.92%

Draw 24.14%

Lincoln Red Imps	Draw	Qarabag FK
2-1 @ 8.01% ( 2.08) 1-0 @ 7.04% ( 0.74) 2-0 @ 5.07% ( 1.71) 3-1 @ 3.85% ( 1.74) 3-2 @ 3.04% ( 1.18) 3-0 @ 2.44% ( 1.24) 4-1 @ 1.39% ( 0.82) 4-2 @ 1.09% ( 0.6) Other @ 3.02% Total : 34.93%	1-1 @ 11.1% ( 0.01) 2-2 @ 6.32% ( 1.09) 0-0 @ 4.88% ( -1.01) 3-3 @ 1.6% ( 0.5) Other @ 0.25% Total : 24.14%	1-2 @ 8.76% ( -1.02) 0-1 @ 7.7% ( -2.69) 0-2 @ 6.08% ( -3.09) 1-3 @ 4.61% ( -1.14) 2-3 @ 3.32% ( 0.25) 0-3 @ 3.2% ( -2.19) 1-4 @ 1.82% ( -0.72) 2-4 @ 1.31% ( -0.04) 0-4 @ 1.26% ( -1.11) Other @ 2.85% Total : 40.92%