Champions League

Champions League | Third Qualifying Round | 1st Leg

Aug 9, 2023 at 7pm UK

Stadio Apostolos Nikolaidis

Panathinaikos
1 - 0
Marseille

(agg: -)

Bernard (83')
Duricic (43'), Perez (77'), Bernard (90')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Kondogbia (1'), Ndiaye (15'), Balerdi (31')
Kondogbia (65')

Preview

Data Analysis

Lineups

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's Champions League clash between Panathinaikos and Marseille, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Panathinaikos

All competitions

Champions League

Last Game: Panathinaikos 2-2 Dnipro-1
Tuesday, August 1 at 6.30pm in Champions League

Goals
for

Marseille

All competitions

Last Game: Ajaccio 1-0 Marseille
Saturday, June 3 at 8pm in Ligue 1

Goals
for

We said: Panathinaikos 1-2 Marseille

Marseille have undergone a significant attacking transition this summer, and Marcelino's new forwards may take some time to gel with one another, offering Panathinaikos hope of a positive result on home soil. The Greek giants can be expected to breach the Olympiens' backline at least once, but Marseille still boast a host of players with plenty of continental nous, and the visitors should take a first-leg lead back to base. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Marseille win with a probability of 38.16%. A win for Panathinaikos had a probability of 33.88% and a draw had a probability of 28%.

The most likely scoreline for a Marseille win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.6%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.02%) and 0-2 (7.08%). The likeliest Panathinaikos win was 1-0 (10.77%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.14%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 10.8% likelihood.

Result
Panathinaikos	Draw	Marseille
33.88% ( -0.04)	27.96% ( -0.04)	38.16% ( 0.08)

Both teams to score 47.77% (

0.1)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

41.79% (

0.12)

58.22% (

-0.12)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

21.14% (

0.1)

78.86% (

-0.09)

Panathinaikos Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

67.78% (

0.04)

32.22% (

-0.03)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

31.29% (

0.04)

68.72% (

-0.04)

Marseille Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

70.48% (

0.11)

29.52% (

-0.1)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

34.46% (

0.13)

65.54% (

-0.12)

Score Analysis

Panathinaikos 33.88%

Marseille 38.16%

Draw 27.95%

Panathinaikos	Draw	Marseille
1-0 @ 10.77% ( -0.04) 2-1 @ 7.44% ( 0) 2-0 @ 6.1% ( -0.02) 3-1 @ 2.81% ( 0) 3-0 @ 2.3% ( -0) 3-2 @ 1.71% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.74% Total : 33.88%	1-1 @ 13.14% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 9.51% ( -0.04) 2-2 @ 4.54% ( 0.01) Other @ 0.76% Total : 27.95%	0-1 @ 11.6% ( -0.02) 1-2 @ 8.02% ( 0.02) 0-2 @ 7.08% ( 0.01) 1-3 @ 3.26% ( 0.02) 0-3 @ 2.88% ( 0.01) 2-3 @ 1.85% ( 0.01) 1-4 @ 1% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.48% Total : 38.16%