Copa Sudamericana | Quarter-Finals | 2nd Leg

Aug 9, 2022 at 11.15pm UK

Estádio do Governo do Estado de Goiás

Atletico GO
3 - 0
Nacional

(Atletico Goianiense win 4-0 on aggregate)

Fernando (5', 53'), Baralhas (45+1')
Jefferson (77'), Freitas (85')
Fernando (90+1')

FT(HT: 2-0)

Coelho (17'), Fagundez (85')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's Copa Sudamericana clash between Atletico Goianiense and Nacional, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

We said: Atletico Goianiense 0-2 Nacional

A one-goal deficit is far from impossible, and nobody knows that better than Luis Suarez, who has a knack for scoring big goals in critical matches as he did at the Camp Nou when his opener helped spur his former club Barcelona onto a 6-1 victory over Paris Saint-Germain in one of the greatest comeback stories in Champions League history. As sharp as Goianiense have been at the Sudamericana, they have been all over the place with their play domestically, and we anticipate their lack of experience in these types of matches could get the better of them in this one. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Goianiense win with a probability of 44.53%. A win for Nacional had a probability of 30.18% and a draw had a probability of 25.3%.

The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Goianiense win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.93%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.13%) and 2-0 (7.56%). The likeliest Nacional win was 0-1 (7.88%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.99%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 3.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Atletico Goianiense would win this match.

Result
Atletico Goianiense	Draw	Nacional
44.53% ( -0.06)	25.29% ( 0.01)	30.18% ( 0.05)

Both teams to score 54.79% (

-0.01)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

51.34% (

-0.03)

48.66% (

0.03)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

29.23% (

-0.03)

70.77% (

0.03)

Atletico Goianiense Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

78.16% (

-0.04)

21.84% (

0.04)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

44.93% (

-0.06)

55.07% (

0.06)

Nacional Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

70.1% (

0.02)

29.9% (

-0.02)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

34% (

0.02)

66% (

-0.02)

Score Analysis

Atletico Goianiense 44.53%

Nacional 30.18%

Draw 25.29%

Atletico Goianiense	Draw	Nacional
1-0 @ 9.93% 2-1 @ 9.13% ( -0.01) 2-0 @ 7.56% ( -0.01) 3-1 @ 4.63% ( -0.01) 3-0 @ 3.83% ( -0.01) 3-2 @ 2.79% ( -0) 4-1 @ 1.76% ( -0.01) 4-0 @ 1.46% ( -0.01) 4-2 @ 1.06% ( -0) Other @ 2.38% Total : 44.53%	1-1 @ 11.99% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 6.53% ( 0.01) 2-2 @ 5.51% 3-3 @ 1.12% ( -0) Other @ 0.14% Total : 25.29%	0-1 @ 7.88% ( 0.01) 1-2 @ 7.24% ( 0.01) 0-2 @ 4.76% ( 0.01) 1-3 @ 2.91% ( 0) 2-3 @ 2.22% ( 0) 0-3 @ 1.92% ( 0.01) Other @ 3.25% Total : 30.18%