Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a ADO Den Haag win with a probability of 40.5%. A win for Jong AZ had a probability of 34.06% and a draw had a probability of 25.4%.

The most likely scoreline for an ADO Den Haag win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.2%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.72%) and 2-0 (6.67%). The likeliest Jong AZ win was 0-1 (8.3%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.03%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 1.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that ADO Den Haag would win this match.

Result
ADO Den Haag	Draw	Jong AZ
40.5% ( 0.24)	25.44% ( -0.17)	34.06% ( -0.07)

Both teams to score 55.83% (

0.56)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

52.02% (

0.73)

47.98% (

-0.72)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

29.85% (

0.67)

70.15% (

-0.66)

ADO Den Haag Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

76.52% (

0.45)

23.48% (

-0.44)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

42.5% (

0.64)

57.5% (

-0.64)

Jong AZ Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

72.96% (

0.31)

27.04% (

-0.3)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

37.6% (

0.4)

62.4% (

-0.4)

Score Analysis

ADO Den Haag 40.5%

Jong AZ 34.06%

Draw 25.43%

ADO Den Haag	Draw	Jong AZ
1-0 @ 9.2% ( -0.16) 2-1 @ 8.72% ( 0.04) 2-0 @ 6.67% ( -0.03) 3-1 @ 4.21% ( 0.07) 3-0 @ 3.22% ( 0.03) 3-2 @ 2.75% ( 0.07) 4-1 @ 1.53% ( 0.05) 4-0 @ 1.17% ( 0.02) 4-2 @ 1% ( 0.04) Other @ 2.05% Total : 40.5%	1-1 @ 12.03% ( -0.1) 0-0 @ 6.35% ( -0.19) 2-2 @ 5.7% ( 0.07) 3-3 @ 1.2% ( 0.04) Other @ 0.15% Total : 25.43%	0-1 @ 8.3% ( -0.18) 1-2 @ 7.87% ( 0) 0-2 @ 5.43% ( -0.07) 1-3 @ 3.43% ( 0.03) 2-3 @ 2.49% ( 0.05) 0-3 @ 2.37% ( -0.01) 1-4 @ 1.12% ( 0.02) Other @ 3.06% Total : 34.06%