[monks data]

Danish Superliga | Gameweek 25

May 31, 2020 at 5pm UK

Blue Water Arena

Esbjerg
1 - 1
AaB

Yakovenko (68')
Yakovenko (33'), Austin (69')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Tengstedt (83')
Jensen (32')

Preview: Esbjerg vs. Aalborg BK - predictions, form guides, head-to-head record

By Ben Knapton, Senior Reporter | 29 May 2020

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Danish Superliga clash between Esbjerg and Aalborg BK, including predictions, form guides and head-to-head records.

Two teams separated by a whopping 20 points in the Danish Superliga table will meet on Sunday as Esbjerg play host to Aalborg BK at the Blue Water Arena.

Aalborg currently occupy the sixth and final spot in the championship round, whereas Esbjerg lie in 13th with two weeks remaining in the 2019-20 campaign.

Match preview

The Danish Superliga recently became the latest top-flight league to return to action following the coronavirus-enforced shutdown, but for five-time champions Esbjerg, it has been a thoroughly disappointing campaign.

Indeed, Lars Olsen's side currently sit second from bottom with 17 points, and with only two gameweeks left in the regular season, Esbjerg have already sealed their fate in the relegation round.

Olsen's side enjoyed an impressive 2018-19 campaign as they clinched third place and a route into the Europa League, but EfB have failed to live up to the same standards this term.

The five-time Superliga champions - who achieved promotion back to the big time in 2018 - have only amassed four wins from 24 top-flight matches, and their tally of 20 goals is the lowest in the league.

Furthermore, Olsen's side have only picked up one win in their last six games on home soil, although that 1-0 victory in February was a hard-fought battle against second-placed Copenhagen.

It is mathematically impossible for Esbjerg to finish higher than 12th, but three points for Olsen's side on Sunday could see them leapfrog Hobro before their clash with Randers on Monday.

In contrast, the postponement could not have come at a more inconvenient time for an Aalborg side who were gathering momentum before play was halted.

Jacob Friis witnessed his team pick up three victories from their last four league matches prior to the shutdown, although AaB have not guaranteed their spot in the championship round just yet.

The four-time champions have accumulated 11 wins, four draws and nine losses thus far, and AaB currently lie on 37 points - two above seventh-placed Randers as things stand.

There is every reason for the Aalborg faithful to be optimistic about their side's fortunes this weekend, though, as the 2013-14 Superliga champions have only lost won of their last six away matches in Denmark's top flight.

Should the division's basement side Silkeborg pull off an unlikely victory against Nordsjaelland in Friday evening's clash, Aalborg could jump up two places into fourth before Brondby take to the pitch on Tuesday.

Esbjerg Superliga form: LLWLLD
Esbjerg form (all competitions): LWLLLD

Aalborg Superliga form: DLWWLW
Aalborg form (all competitions): LWWLWW

Head To Head

Sunday's fixture represents the 55th meeting between the two sides since 1999, with Esbjerg picking up 17 wins compared to Aalborg's 22.

Friis's side have struck eight times in their two most recent clashes with Esbjerg, with a brace from top scorer Lucas Andersen paving the way to a 4-0 victory for Aalborg back in August.

We say: Esbjerg 0-2 Aalborg

No team in the division have lost more games than Esbjerg this season, and Olsen's side showed no signs of improvement before play was brought to a halt. Given Aalborg's strong away form and their push to secure a spot in the championship round, we are going for a comfortable win for the visitors.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Aalborg BK win with a probability of 52.08%. A win for Esbjerg had a probability of 25.17% and a draw had a probability of 22.8%.

The most likely scoreline for an Aalborg BK win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.69%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.58%) and 0-2 (7.93%). The likeliest Esbjerg win was 2-1 (6.4%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.48%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 10.5% likelihood.