UEFA Conference League

Europa Conference League | Group Stage

Nov 30, 2023 at 5.45pm UK

AFAS Stadion

AZ
1 - 0
Zrinjski Mostar

Pavlidis (59' pen.)
Penetra (68')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Malekinusic (60')

Preview

Data Analysis

Lineups

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Europa Conference League clash between AZ Alkmaar and Zrinjski Mostar, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

AZ Alkmaar

All competitions

Europa Conference League

Last Game: AZ 3-0 Volendam
Sunday, November 26 at 1.30pm in Eredivisie

Goals
for

Top scorers

Zrinjski Mostar

All competitions

Europa Conference League

Last Game: Legia 2-0 Zrinjski Mostar
Thursday, November 9 at 5.45pm in Europa Conference League

We said: AZ Alkmaar 3-1 Zrinjski Mostar

With both teams' places in the Europa Conference League hanging by a thread, we expect to see a fiercely-contested encounter play out in Alkmaar on Thursday, but the hosts are clear favourites to win. Of course, a draw between Aston Villa and Legia Warsaw in Birmingham later in the evening would eliminate both teams, but we expect AZ to give themselves a chance of remaining in the competition by dispatching Zrinjski. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 74.66%. A draw had a probability of 16.5% and a win for Zrinjski Mostar had a probability of 8.89%.

The most likely scoreline for an AZ Alkmaar win was 2-0 with a probability of 13.7%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (11.85%) and 3-0 (10.56%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.8%), while for a Zrinjski Mostar win it was 0-1 (3.38%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 11.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that AZ Alkmaar would win this match.

Result
AZ Alkmaar	Draw	Zrinjski Mostar
74.66% ( 0.03)	16.45% ( 0.03)	8.89% ( -0.06)

Both teams to score 43.46% (

-0.34)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

57.03% (

-0.32)

42.97% (

0.32)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

34.63% (

-0.32)

65.38% (

0.32)

AZ Alkmaar Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

90.1% (

-0.07)

9.9% (

0.08)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

67.2% (

-0.17)

32.8% (

0.18)

Zrinjski Mostar Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

48.23% (

-0.34)

51.77% (

0.34)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

14.15% (

-0.22)

85.85% (

0.23)

Score Analysis

AZ Alkmaar 74.64%

Zrinjski Mostar 8.89%

Draw 16.45%

AZ Alkmaar	Draw	Zrinjski Mostar
2-0 @ 13.7% ( 0.1) 1-0 @ 11.85% ( 0.13) 3-0 @ 10.56% ( 0.04) 2-1 @ 9.02% ( -0.02) 3-1 @ 6.96% ( -0.04) 4-0 @ 6.11% ( 0.01) 4-1 @ 4.02% ( -0.04) 5-0 @ 2.83% ( -0.01) 3-2 @ 2.29% ( -0.04) 5-1 @ 1.86% ( -0.02) 4-2 @ 1.32% ( -0.02) 6-0 @ 1.09% ( -0.01) Other @ 3.04% Total : 74.64%	1-1 @ 7.8% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 5.13% ( 0.07) 2-2 @ 2.97% ( -0.04) Other @ 0.55% Total : 16.45%	0-1 @ 3.38% ( 0.02) 1-2 @ 2.57% ( -0.02) 0-2 @ 1.11% ( -0.01) Other @ 1.84% Total : 8.89%