Euro Champ Qualifying | Semi-Finals
Mar 21, 2024 at 7.45pm UK
Cardiff City Stadium
Wales4 - 1Finland
The Match
Match Report
Wales beat Finland 4-1 in Cardiff to set up a Euro 2024 playoff final versus Poland on Tuesday.
Preview
Sports Mole previews Thursday's Euro Champ Qualifying clash between Wales and Finland, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.
Form, Standings, Stats
Last Game: Wales 1-1 Turkey
Tuesday, November 21 at 7.45pm in Euro Champ Qualifying
Tuesday, November 21 at 7.45pm in Euro Champ Qualifying
Last Game: San Marino 1-2 Finland
Monday, November 20 at 7.45pm in Euro Champ Qualifying
Monday, November 20 at 7.45pm in Euro Champ Qualifying
Current Group H Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
1 | Slovenia | 10 | 11 | 22 |
2 | Denmark | 10 | 9 | 22 |
3 | Finland | 10 | 8 | 18 |
4 | Kazakhstan | 10 | 4 | 18 |
5 | Northern Ireland | 10 | -4 | 9 |
6 | San Marino | 10 | -28 | 0 |
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Wales win with a probability of 38.2%. A win for Finland had a probability of 34.33% and a draw had a probability of 27.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Wales win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.09%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.14%) and 2-0 (6.94%). The likeliest Finland win was 0-1 (10.38%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.99%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 1.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Wales would win this match.
Result | ||
Wales | Draw | Finland |
38.2% ( 1.19) | 27.47% ( -0.16) | 34.33% ( -1.03) |
Both teams to score 49.28% ( 0.38) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
43.65% ( 0.52) | 56.35% ( -0.51) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
22.62% ( 0.41) | 77.38% ( -0.41) |
Wales Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
71.4% ( 0.96) | 28.6% ( -0.96) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
35.6% ( 1.18) | 64.4% ( -1.18) |
Finland Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
69.02% ( -0.4) | 30.98% ( 0.41) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
32.72% ( -0.48) | 67.28% ( 0.48) |
Score Analysis |
Wales 38.2%
Finland 34.33%
Draw 27.47%
Wales | Draw | Finland |
1-0 @ 11.09% ( 0.08) 2-1 @ 8.14% ( 0.18) 2-0 @ 6.94% ( 0.23) 3-1 @ 3.4% ( 0.16) 3-0 @ 2.9% ( 0.17) 3-2 @ 1.99% ( 0.07) 4-1 @ 1.06% ( 0.08) 4-0 @ 0.91% ( 0.08) Other @ 1.78% Total : 38.2% | 1-1 @ 12.99% ( -0.06) 0-0 @ 8.86% ( -0.18) 2-2 @ 4.77% ( 0.05) Other @ 0.85% Total : 27.47% | 0-1 @ 10.38% ( -0.32) 1-2 @ 7.62% ( -0.12) 0-2 @ 6.08% ( -0.26) 1-3 @ 2.97% ( -0.08) 0-3 @ 2.38% ( -0.13) 2-3 @ 1.86% Other @ 3.04% Total : 34.33% |
How you voted: Wales vs Finland
Wales
72.8%Draw
12.3%Finland
14.9%195
Head to Head
Sep 1, 2021 5pm
Nov 16, 2013 6pm
Form Guide
rhs 2.0
LT: 2024-06-13 00:46:00
Friday, June 14
8pm
Group Stage
Germany
vs.
Scotland
Saturday, June 15
2pm
Group Stage
Hungary
vs.
Switzerland
5pm
Group Stage
Spain
vs.
Croatia
8pm
Group Stage
Italy
vs.
Albania
Sunday, June 16
2pm
Group Stage
Poland
vs.
Netherlands
5pm
Group Stage
Slovenia
vs.
Denmark
8pm
Group Stage
Serbia
vs.
England
Monday, June 17
2pm
Group Stage
Romania
vs.
Ukraine
5pm
Group Stage
Belgium
vs.
Slovakia
8pm
Group Stage
Austria
vs.
France
Tuesday, June 18
5pm
Group Stage
Turkey
vs.
Georgia
8pm
Group Stage
Portugal
vs.
Czech Republic
Wednesday, June 19
2pm
Group Stage
Croatia
vs.
Albania
5pm
Group Stage
Germany
vs.
Hungary
8pm
Group Stage
Scotland
vs.
Switzerland
Thursday, June 20
2pm
Group Stage
Slovenia
vs.
Serbia
5pm
Group Stage
Denmark
vs.
England
8pm
Group Stage
Spain
vs.
Italy
Friday, June 21
2pm
Group Stage
Slovakia
vs.
Ukraine
5pm
Group Stage
Poland
vs.
Austria
8pm
Group Stage
Netherlands
vs.
France
Saturday, June 22
2pm
Group Stage
Georgia
vs.
Czech Republic
5pm
Group Stage
Turkey
vs.
Portugal
8pm
Group Stage
Belgium
vs.
Romania
Sunday, June 23
8pm
Group Stage
Scotland
vs.
Hungary
8pm
Group Stage
Switzerland
vs.
Germany
Monday, June 24
8pm
Group Stage
Albania
vs.
Spain
8pm
Group Stage
Croatia
vs.
Italy
Tuesday, June 25
5pm
Group Stage
France
vs.
Poland
5pm
Group Stage
Netherlands
vs.
Austria
8pm
Group Stage
Denmark
vs.
Serbia
8pm
Group Stage
England
vs.
Slovenia
Wednesday, June 26
5pm
Group Stage
Slovakia
vs.
Romania
5pm
Group Stage
Ukraine
vs.
Belgium
8pm
Group Stage
Czech Republic
vs.
Turkey
8pm
Group Stage
Georgia
vs.
Portugal
Saturday, June 29
5pm
Round of 16
2nd Group A
vs.
2nd Group B
8pm
Round of 16
1st Group A
vs.
2nd Group C
Sunday, June 30
5pm
Round of 16
1st Group C
vs.
3rd Group D/E/F
8pm
Round of 16
1st Group B
vs.
3rd Group A/D/E/F
Monday, July 1
5pm
Round of 16
2nd Group D
vs.
2nd Group E
8pm
Round of 16
1st Group F
vs.
3rd Group A/B/C
Tuesday, July 2
5pm
Round of 16
1st Group E
vs.
3rd Group A/B/C/D
8pm
Round of 16
1st Group D
vs.
2nd Group F
Friday, July 5
5pm
Quarter-Finals
Winner Match 39
vs.
Winner Match 37
8pm
Quarter-Finals
Winner Match 41
vs.
Winner Match 42
Saturday, July 6
5pm
Quarter-Finals
Winner Match 40
vs.
Winner Match 38
8pm
Quarter-Finals
Winner Match 43
vs.
Winner Match 44
Group A
Team | P | W | D | L | PTS | |
1 | Germany | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
2 | Hungary | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
3 | Scotland | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
4 | Switzerland | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Group D
Team | P | W | D | L | PTS | |
1 | Austria | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
2 | France | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
3 | Netherlands | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
4 | Poland | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
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