FA Cup

FA Cup | Third Round Replays

Jan 18, 2023 at 7.45pm UK

Elland Road

Leeds
5 - 2
Cardiff

Gnonto (1', 36'), Rodrigo (34'), Bamford (71', 76')
Gnonto (40')

FT(HT: 3-0)

Robinson (84', 90+3' pen.)
Sang (39')

Five-star Leeds United outclass Cardiff City in FA Cup replay

Leeds United progress to the fourth round of the FA Cup after securing a 5-2 victory over Cardiff City in their third-round replay at Elland Road on Wednesday.

Jan 18, 21:41

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's FA Cup clash between Leeds United and Cardiff City, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Leeds United

All competitions

FA Cup

Last Game: Aston Villa 2-1 Leeds
Friday, January 13 at 8pm in Premier League

Goals
for

Top scorers

Cardiff City

All competitions

FA Cup

Last Game: Cardiff 1-1 Wigan
Saturday, January 14 at 3pm in Championship

Goals
for

Top scorers

We said: Leeds United 2-1 Cardiff City (a.e.t)

Neither Leeds nor Cardiff have the ingredients for a recipe for success right now, but if Whitehead can bring the new manager bounce to Elland Road with him, a leaky Whites side could be in for a tricky evening. Marsch's men tend to find their golden touch in front of their own supporters, though, and with some high-quality attacking players ready to make an impact off the bench, Leeds should book their place in round four, although they may require 120 minutes to do so. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Leeds United win with a probability of 54.69%. A draw had a probability of 23.3% and a win for Cardiff City had a probability of 21.99%.

The most likely scoreline for a Leeds United win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.82%) and 2-0 (9.46%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.04%), while for a Cardiff City win it was 0-1 (6.22%). The actual scoreline of 5-2 was predicted with a 0.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Leeds United would win this match.

Result
Leeds United	Draw	Cardiff City
54.69% ( 0.09)	23.31% ( -0.07)	21.99% ( -0.02)

Both teams to score 53.67% (

0.21)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

53.42% (

0.29)

46.58% (

-0.3)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

31.15% (

0.27)

68.85% (

-0.28)

Leeds United Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

83.09% (

0.14)

16.91% (

-0.14)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

53.03% (

0.24)

46.97% (

-0.25)

Cardiff City Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

64.59% (

0.14)

35.41% (

-0.15)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

27.83% (

0.15)

72.17% (

-0.15)

Score Analysis

Leeds United 54.69%

Cardiff City 21.99%

Draw 23.3%

Leeds United	Draw	Cardiff City
1-0 @ 10.64% ( -0.08) 2-1 @ 9.82% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 9.46% ( -0.03) 3-1 @ 5.82% ( 0.03) 3-0 @ 5.6% ( 0.01) 3-2 @ 3.02% ( 0.03) 4-1 @ 2.58% ( 0.03) 4-0 @ 2.49% ( 0.02) 4-2 @ 1.34% ( 0.02) 5-1 @ 0.92% ( 0.01) Other @ 3.01% Total : 54.69%	1-1 @ 11.04% ( -0.05) 0-0 @ 5.99% ( -0.07) 2-2 @ 5.1% ( 0.03) 3-3 @ 1.05% ( 0.01) Other @ 0.13% Total : 23.3%	0-1 @ 6.22% ( -0.05) 1-2 @ 5.74% ( 0) 0-2 @ 3.23% ( -0.01) 1-3 @ 1.99% ( 0.01) 2-3 @ 1.76% ( 0.02) 0-3 @ 1.12% Other @ 1.95% Total : 21.99%