Freiburg take on FC Koln in the Bundesliga on Saturday, with the hosts looking to continue their upwards trajectory in the table by gaining a fifth successive league win.

Koln, meanwhile, are languishing just a point outside of the relegation places.

Match preview

Freiburg head coach Christian Streich pictured on November 7, 2020 © Reuters

After only one win in their opening 10 league games, few could have seen Freiburg's astonishing recent run of form coming.

Even manager Christian Streich himself may be pleasantly surprised by the positive results his side are currently churning out, with Saturday's impressive 3-1 victory at Hoffenheim yet more evidence that his side should have no business concerning themselves with a relegation battle this season.

Indeed, in terms of points gap, Freiburg are now twice as close to the Champions League qualification places as they are the bottom three. However, Streich will be more than content with the top half position they currently occupy, and will be using his vast experience at the club to ensure his players do not get ahead of themselves.

However, if Vincenzo Grifo can continue the type of fine form which has seen the forward score five goals in his last six league games, the sky is the limit for Freiburg. They were simply blistering in the first half against a hapless Hoffenheim outfit, with Baptiste Santamaria's first goal for the club and Kasim Nuhu's own goal ensuring that Ihlas Bebou's strike after the break proved to be nothing more than a consolation goal.

FC Koln players celebrate scoring against Union Berlin on November 22, 2020 © Reuters

Koln, meanwhile, have failed to build on the crucial 1-0 win at relegation rivals Mainz 05 last month, taking only one point from their subsequent three games.

Admittedly, though, that point was gained in extremely impressive fashion at title contenders RB Leipzig, with the derby against Bayer Leverkusen always unlikely to be a fruitful affair. However, the 1-0 home defeat to Augsburg on Saturday would have hugely disappointed Markus Gisdol.

In truth it was a tepid affair, with Augsburg's Florian Niederlechner the pick of the players on the pitch. The forward was denied his first goal of the season after correctly being adjudged to have been offside in the build-up to his superb diving header, but Niederlechner impressively kept his spirits intact to show terrific awareness when laying the ball on a plate for Iago in the 77th minute.

Koln looked woefully short of attacking ambition throughout the game, with Gisdol surely likely to shake things up in what suddenly looks like a daunting trip to Freiburg.

Freiburg Bundesliga form: DDWWWW
Freiburg form (all competitions): DWWWLW

FC Koln Bundesliga form: WDWLDL
FC Koln form (all competitions): DWLDWL

Team News

Ismail Jakobs in action for Koln against RB Leipzig on June 1, 2020 © Reuters

Freiburg are without Mark Flekken, Janik Haberer and Gian-Luca Itter for the visit of Koln, but otherwise look to have a clean bill of health to choose from.

Streich is surely unlikely to change a side which displayed superb form in the win at Hoffenheim at the weekend, although Roland Sallai could come back into the side ahead of Kwon Chang-hoon.

Koln, meanwhile, are without Ismail Jakobs, Florian Kainz and Sebastian Andersson for the trip to Freiburg, leaving them short of attacking options.

Gisdol may turn to experience in the shape of Anthony Modeste and captain Jonas Hector, who were both used from the bench in the defeat to Augsburg. Modeste is yet to start this season but could provide a focal point in attack, while Hector has not started since sustaining a neck injury in January.

Freiburg possible starting lineup:
Muller; Lienhart, Schlotterbeck, Gulde; Schmid, Santamaria, Hofler, Gunter; Sallai, Demirovic, Grifo

FC Koln possible starting lineup:
Horn; Wolf, Mere, Bornauw, Katterbach; Ozcan, Skhiri, Hector; Thielmann, Modeste, Duda

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We say: Freiburg 2-1 FC Koln

With Freiburg looking in sensational form at present, we can see them clinically taking the opportunities which will surely come their way against Koln.

Gisdol's side are rarely soundly beaten, though, so have enough about them to make it a competitive game and it would be little surprise to see a share of the spoils.

Top betting tip

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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Freiburg win with a probability of 43.52%. A win for FC Koln had a probability of 31.88% and a draw had a probability of 24.6%.

The most likely scoreline for a Freiburg win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.07%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.76%) and 2-0 (6.9%). The likeliest FC Koln win was 1-2 (7.56%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.51%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 0.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Freiburg would win this match.