Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sagan Tosu win with a probability of 49.6%. A draw had a probability of 27% and a win for Gamba Osaka had a probability of 23.44%.

The most likely scoreline for a Sagan Tosu win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.08%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.04%) and 2-1 (8.93%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.51%), while for a Gamba Osaka win it was 0-1 (8.77%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Sagan Tosu would win this match.

Result
Sagan Tosu	Draw	Gamba Osaka
49.6% ( 0.26)	26.96% ( 0.04)	23.44% ( -0.29)

Both teams to score 44.75% (

-0.39)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

40.82% (

-0.34)

59.18% (

0.35)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

20.39% (

-0.27)

79.61% (

0.27)

Sagan Tosu Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

76% (

-0.03)

24.01% (

0.03)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

41.75% (

-0.05)

58.26% (

0.05)

Gamba Osaka Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

58.89% (

-0.48)

41.11% (

0.48)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

22.34% (

-0.43)

77.66% (

0.43)

Score Analysis

Sagan Tosu 49.6%

Gamba Osaka 23.44%

Draw 26.95%

Sagan Tosu	Draw	Gamba Osaka
1-0 @ 14.08% ( 0.17) 2-0 @ 10.04% ( 0.1) 2-1 @ 8.93% ( -0.02) 3-0 @ 4.78% ( 0.05) 3-1 @ 4.25% ( -0.01) 3-2 @ 1.89% ( -0.03) 4-0 @ 1.71% ( 0.02) 4-1 @ 1.52% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.41% Total : 49.6%	1-1 @ 12.51% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 9.87% ( 0.13) 2-2 @ 3.97% ( -0.06) Other @ 0.61% Total : 26.95%	0-1 @ 8.77% 1-2 @ 5.56% ( -0.08) 0-2 @ 3.9% ( -0.05) 1-3 @ 1.65% ( -0.05) 2-3 @ 1.18% ( -0.03) 0-3 @ 1.16% ( -0.03) Other @ 1.23% Total : 23.44%