League One

League One | Gameweek 2

Aug 12, 2023 at 3pm UK

Pirelli Stadium

Burton Albion
0 - 3
Derby

Seddon (2'), Maamria (3')

FT(HT: 0-1)

Collins (6'), Hourihane (78'), Washington (84')
Mendez-Laing (45+2'), Hourihane (66'), Cashin (90+6')

Preview

Data Analysis

Lineups

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's League One clash between Burton Albion and Derby County, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Burton Albion

All competitions

League One

Last Game: Burton Albion 0-2 Leicester
Wednesday, August 9 at 8pm in EFL Cup

Goals
for

Derby County

All competitions

League One

Last Game: Derby 0-2 Blackpool
Tuesday, August 8 at 7.45pm in EFL Cup

Goals
for

Top scorers

We said: Burton Albion 0-1 Derby County

As neither crop of players are brimming with confidence right now, do not expect a classic at the Pirelli Stadium, where further injuries to Burton's already-depleted squad may prove crucial. In contrast, Derby are blessed with a few more options for change in the forward areas, and despite Burton's respectable stretch of home form, Warne's side can shut up shop after drawing first blood to belatedly get off the mark. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 57.55%. A draw had a probability of 23.4% and a win for Burton Albion had a probability of 19.03%.

The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.42%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.86%) and 1-2 (9.73%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.12%), while for a Burton Albion win it was 1-0 (6.36%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 6.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Derby County would win this match.

Result
Burton Albion	Draw	Derby County
19.03% ( -0.07)	23.42% ( 0.01)	57.55% ( 0.06)

Both teams to score 48.87% (

-0.14)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

49.28% (

-0.14)

50.72% (

0.14)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

27.38% (

-0.12)

72.62% (

0.12)

Burton Albion Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

59.16% (

-0.16)

40.84% (

0.16)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

22.59% (

-0.14)

77.41% (

0.14)

Derby County Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

82.61% (

-0.03)

17.39% (

0.03)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

52.19% (

-0.05)

47.81% (

0.05)

Score Analysis

Burton Albion 19.03%

Derby County 57.54%

Draw 23.42%

Burton Albion	Draw	Derby County
1-0 @ 6.36% ( 0.01) 2-1 @ 4.98% ( -0.02) 2-0 @ 2.85% ( -0.01) 3-1 @ 1.49% ( -0.01) 3-2 @ 1.3% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.06% Total : 19.03%	1-1 @ 11.12% 0-0 @ 7.1% ( 0.04) 2-2 @ 4.36% ( -0.02) Other @ 0.84% Total : 23.42%	0-1 @ 12.42% ( 0.06) 0-2 @ 10.86% ( 0.04) 1-2 @ 9.73% ( -0.01) 0-3 @ 6.34% ( 0.02) 1-3 @ 5.67% ( -0.01) 0-4 @ 2.77% ( 0) 2-3 @ 2.54% ( -0.02) 1-4 @ 2.48% ( -0.01) 2-4 @ 1.11% ( -0.01) 0-5 @ 0.97% ( 0) Other @ 2.64% Total : 57.54%