League One

League One | Gameweek 24

Dec 30, 2022 at 7.45pm UK

Pride Park Stadium

Derby
1 - 0
Cambridge

Dobbin (57')
Sibley (35'), Smith (90+3')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Brophy (76'), Janneh (81'), Williams (89')

Preview

Data Analysis

Lineups

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Friday's League One clash between Derby County and Cambridge United, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Derby County

All competitions

League One

Last Game: Bolton 0-0 Derby
Tuesday, December 27 at 3pm in League One

Goals
for

Top scorers

Cambridge United

All competitions

League One

Last Game: Cambridge 2-1 Shrewsbury
Monday, December 26 at 3pm in League One

Goals
for

We said: Derby County 1-1 Cambridge United

Derby County's trouble recently has been turning draws into victories, and although they boast the quality to see off Cambridge United, the visitors will have renewed optimism after their Boxing Day victory, and we fancy them to return home with a share of the spoils. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 65.51%. A draw had a probability of 19.5% and a win for Cambridge United had a probability of 14.96%.

The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.77%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.04%) and 2-1 (9.87%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.21%), while for a Cambridge United win it was 0-1 (4.29%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 10% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Derby County would win this match.

Result
Derby County	Draw	Cambridge United
65.51% ( -0.58)	19.53% ( 0.06)	14.96% ( 0.52)

Both teams to score 52.98% (

1.16)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

59.04% (

0.85)

40.96% (

-0.84)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

36.64% (

0.86)

63.35% (

-0.86)

Derby County Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

88.29% (

0.09)

11.71% (

-0.09)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

63.17% (

0.2)

36.83% (

-0.19)

Cambridge United Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

60% (

1.25)

40% (

-1.25)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

23.35% (

1.13)

76.65% (

-1.12)

Score Analysis

Derby County 65.5%

Cambridge United 14.96%

Draw 19.53%

Derby County	Draw	Cambridge United
2-0 @ 10.77% ( -0.34) 1-0 @ 10.04% ( -0.36) 2-1 @ 9.87% ( 0.03) 3-0 @ 7.7% ( -0.22) 3-1 @ 7.06% ( 0.05) 4-0 @ 4.13% ( -0.1) 4-1 @ 3.78% ( 0.04) 3-2 @ 3.23% ( 0.13) 5-0 @ 1.77% ( -0.04) 4-2 @ 1.73% ( 0.08) 5-1 @ 1.62% ( 0.02) Other @ 3.79% Total : 65.5%	1-1 @ 9.21% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 4.68% ( -0.18) 2-2 @ 4.52% ( 0.16) 3-3 @ 0.99% ( 0.07) Other @ 0.13% Total : 19.53%	0-1 @ 4.29% ( -0.02) 1-2 @ 4.22% ( 0.14) 0-2 @ 1.97% ( 0.06) 2-3 @ 1.38% ( 0.1) 1-3 @ 1.29% ( 0.08) Other @ 1.81% Total : 14.96%