League Two

League Two | Gameweek 13

Oct 14, 2023 at 3pm UK

County Ground

Swindon
2 - 0
Newport

Kemp (8'), Hepburn-Murphy (82')
Brewitt (36')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Preview

Data Analysis

Lineups

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's League Two clash between Swindon Town and Newport County, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Swindon Town

All competitions

League Two

Last Game: Reading 5-0 Swindon
Tuesday, October 10 at 7pm in EFL Trophy

Goals
for

Top scorers

Newport County

All competitions

League Two

Last Game: Cheltenham 0-2 Newport
Tuesday, October 10 at 7.30pm in EFL Trophy

Goals
for

Top scorers

We said: Swindon Town 2-1 Newport County

Swindon's home form has been near-perfect this season, with an opening draw against Crewe the only result stopping them from having a 100% record at the County Ground so far. Newport's start has been underwhelming but has shown bright sparks, especially in attack, but their defensive woes may cost them against one of the league's strongest forward lines. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Swindon Town win with a probability of 49.96%. A win for Newport County had a probability of 27.19% and a draw had a probability of 22.9%.

The most likely scoreline for a Swindon Town win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.52%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.01%) and 2-0 (7.34%). The likeliest Newport County win was 1-2 (6.75%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.39%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 7.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Swindon Town would win this match.

Result
Swindon Town	Draw	Newport County
49.96% ( 0.04)	22.85% ( 0)	27.19% ( -0.04)

Both teams to score 61.05% (

-0.04)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

60.52% (

-0.04)

39.48% (

0.05)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

38.18% (

-0.05)

61.83% (

0.05)

Swindon Town Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

83.99%

16.02% (

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

54.65% (

-0)

45.35% (

0.01)

Newport County Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

72.69% (

-0.05)

27.31% (

0.06)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

37.25% (

-0.07)

62.76% (

0.07)

Score Analysis

Swindon Town 49.96%

Newport County 27.19%

Draw 22.84%

Swindon Town	Draw	Newport County
2-1 @ 9.52% ( 0) 1-0 @ 8.01% ( 0.02) 2-0 @ 7.34% ( 0.01) 3-1 @ 5.81% ( 0) 3-0 @ 4.48% ( 0.01) 3-2 @ 3.77% ( -0) 4-1 @ 2.66% ( 0) 4-0 @ 2.05% ( 0) 4-2 @ 1.73% ( -0) 5-1 @ 0.98% Other @ 3.62% Total : 49.96%	1-1 @ 10.39% 2-2 @ 6.18% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 4.37% ( 0.01) 3-3 @ 1.63% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.27% Total : 22.84%	1-2 @ 6.75% ( -0.01) 0-1 @ 5.68% ( 0) 0-2 @ 3.69% ( -0) 1-3 @ 2.92% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 2.67% ( -0.01) 0-3 @ 1.59% ( -0) 1-4 @ 0.95% ( -0) Other @ 2.94% Total : 27.19%