La Liga

La Liga | Gameweek 23

Feb 3, 2024 at 5.30pm UK

Estadio de Mendizorroza

Alaves
1 - 3
Barcelona

Omorodion (51')
Omorodion (12'), Sola (90+7')

FT(HT: 0-1)

Lewandowski (22'), Gundogan (49'), Roque (63')
Roque (67')
Roque (72')

Barcelona boss Xavi plays down Ilkay Gundogan injury fears

Barcelona boss Xavi insists that Ilkay Gundogan only picked up "a knock on his back" during Saturday's La Liga contest with Alaves.

Feb 4, 08:39

The Match

Form, Standings, Stats

Alaves

All competitions

La Liga

Last Game: Almeria 0-3 Alaves
Friday, January 26 at 8pm in La Liga

Goals
for

Top scorers

Barcelona

All competitions

La Liga

Last Game: Barcelona 1-0 Osasuna
Wednesday, January 31 at 6pm in La Liga

Goals
for

Top scorers

This is a really hard match to call, especially considering Alaves' strong form, and we would not be shocked to see a home win or a draw here. Barcelona need to keep picking up wins in order to stay in the title picture, though, and we are backing them to navigate their way to a vital three points. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Barcelona win with a probability of 48.35%. A win for Alaves had a probability of 26.27% and a draw had a probability of 25.4%.

The most likely scoreline for a Barcelona win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.24%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.36%) and 0-2 (8.72%). The likeliest Alaves win was 1-0 (7.78%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.06%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 4.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Barcelona would win this match.

Result
Alaves	Draw	Barcelona
26.27% ( -0.57)	25.37% ( -0.17)	48.35% ( 0.73)

Both teams to score 51.86% (

0.05)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

48.77% (

0.3)

51.23% (

-0.3)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

26.93% (

0.25)

73.06% (

-0.26)

Alaves Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

65.81% (

-0.3)

34.18% (

0.3)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

29.12% (

-0.32)

70.88% (

0.32)

Barcelona Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

78.8% (

0.44)

21.2% (

-0.44)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

45.91% (

0.68)

54.08% (

-0.69)

Score Analysis

Alaves 26.27%

Barcelona 48.35%

Draw 25.36%

Alaves	Draw	Barcelona
1-0 @ 7.78% ( -0.16) 2-1 @ 6.48% ( -0.1) 2-0 @ 4.18% ( -0.12) 3-1 @ 2.32% ( -0.05) 3-2 @ 1.8% ( -0.02) 3-0 @ 1.49% ( -0.05) Other @ 2.24% Total : 26.27%	1-1 @ 12.06% ( -0.08) 0-0 @ 7.25% ( -0.09) 2-2 @ 5.02% ( -0.01) 3-3 @ 0.93% ( 0) Other @ 0.1% Total : 25.36%	0-1 @ 11.24% ( 0.02) 1-2 @ 9.36% ( 0.06) 0-2 @ 8.72% ( 0.13) 1-3 @ 4.84% ( 0.1) 0-3 @ 4.51% ( 0.13) 2-3 @ 2.6% ( 0.03) 1-4 @ 1.88% ( 0.06) 0-4 @ 1.75% ( 0.07) 2-4 @ 1.01% ( 0.02) Other @ 2.46% Total : 48.35%