Europa League

Europa League | Round of 16 | 2nd Leg

Mar 14, 2024 at 8pm UK

BayArena

B. Leverkusen
3 - 2
Qarabag

(Bayer Leverkusen win 5-4 on aggregate)

Frimpong (72'), Schick (90+3', 90+7')
Schick (70')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Zoubir (58'), Juninho (67')
Juninho (77'), Lunev (90')
Cafarquliyev (64')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Europa League clash between Bayer Leverkusen and Qarabag FK, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Bayer Leverkusen

All competitions

Europa League

Last Game: B. Leverkusen 2-0 Wolfsburg
Sunday, March 10 at 6.30pm in Bundesliga

Goals
for

Top scorers

Qarabag FK

All competitions

Last Game: Qarabag 2-2 B. Leverkusen
Thursday, March 7 at 5.45pm in Europa League

We said: Bayer Leverkusen 3-1 Qarabag FK (Bayer Leverkusen to win 5-3 on aggregate)

Alonso may not be so tempted to makes mass changes to his Leverkusen lineup this time around and should turn to some of his star names from the off in a bid to take control of proceedings and begin the second leg in better fashion than the first. Qarabag will have their tails up heading to Germany and require another spirited display to put themselves in a strong position to progress, but taking into account Leverkusen's strength in depth, the hosts should get the job done to reach the last eight. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bayer Leverkusen win with a probability of 70.56%. A draw had a probability of 16.9% and a win for Qarabag FK had a probability of 12.56%.

The most likely scoreline for a Bayer Leverkusen win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.04%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.5%) and 3-0 (8.23%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.72%), while for a Qarabag FK win it was 1-2 (3.65%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Bayer Leverkusen would win this match.

Result
Bayer Leverkusen	Draw	Qarabag FK
70.56% ( -0.18)	16.88% ( 0.09)	12.56% ( 0.08)

Both teams to score 55.93% (

-0.1)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

66.12% (

-0.25)

33.87% (

0.25)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

44.27% (

-0.28)

55.72% (

0.28)

Bayer Leverkusen Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

91.45% (

-0.1)

8.55% (

0.1)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

70.43% (

-0.25)

29.57% (

0.25)

Qarabag FK Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

61.15% (

-0.04)

38.84% (

0.04)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

24.42% (

-0.04)

75.57% (

0.04)

Score Analysis

Bayer Leverkusen 70.56%

Qarabag FK 12.56%

Draw 16.88%

Bayer Leverkusen	Draw	Qarabag FK
2-0 @ 10.04% ( 0.04) 2-1 @ 9.5% ( 0.02) 3-0 @ 8.23% ( -0.01) 1-0 @ 8.17% ( 0.06) 3-1 @ 7.79% ( -0.02) 4-0 @ 5.06% ( -0.03) 4-1 @ 4.79% ( -0.04) 3-2 @ 3.68% ( -0.01) 5-0 @ 2.49% ( -0.03) 5-1 @ 2.36% ( -0.03) 4-2 @ 2.26% ( -0.02) 5-2 @ 1.11% ( -0.01) 6-0 @ 1.02% ( -0.02) 6-1 @ 0.97% ( -0.02) Other @ 3.1% Total : 70.56%	1-1 @ 7.72% ( 0.05) 2-2 @ 4.49% ( 0) 0-0 @ 3.32% ( 0.04) 3-3 @ 1.16% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.19% Total : 16.88%	1-2 @ 3.65% ( 0.02) 0-1 @ 3.14% ( 0.04) 0-2 @ 1.48% ( 0.01) 2-3 @ 1.42% 1-3 @ 1.15% ( 0.01) Other @ 1.72% Total : 12.56%