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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Southampton win with a probability of 43.53%. A win for Birmingham City had a probability of 31.87% and a draw had a probability of 24.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Southampton win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.07%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.76%) and 0-2 (6.9%). The likeliest Birmingham City win was 2-1 (7.56%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.51%). The actual scoreline of 3-4 was predicted with a 0.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Southampton would win this match.
Result | ||
Birmingham City | Draw | Southampton |
31.87% ( -0.3) | 24.6% ( -0.01) | 43.53% ( 0.31) |
Both teams to score 57.99% ( -0.09) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
55.15% ( -0.07) | 44.85% ( 0.07) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
32.79% ( -0.06) | 67.21% ( 0.06) |
Birmingham City Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
73.12% ( -0.22) | 26.88% ( 0.22) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
37.81% ( -0.29) | 62.19% ( 0.29) |
Southampton Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
79.3% ( 0.11) | 20.7% ( -0.11) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
46.7% ( 0.18) | 53.3% ( -0.18) |
Score Analysis |
Birmingham City | Draw | Southampton |
2-1 @ 7.56% ( -0.05) 1-0 @ 7.31% ( -0.02) 2-0 @ 4.8% ( -0.05) 3-1 @ 3.31% ( -0.04) 3-2 @ 2.61% ( -0.02) 3-0 @ 2.1% ( -0.03) 4-1 @ 1.09% ( -0.02) Other @ 3.09% Total : 31.87% | 1-1 @ 11.51% 2-2 @ 5.96% ( -0.02) 0-0 @ 5.56% ( 0.02) 3-3 @ 1.37% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.19% Total : 24.59% | 1-2 @ 9.07% ( 0.03) 0-1 @ 8.76% ( 0.05) 0-2 @ 6.9% ( 0.07) 1-3 @ 4.76% ( 0.03) 0-3 @ 3.62% ( 0.05) 2-3 @ 3.13% ( 0) 1-4 @ 1.88% ( 0.02) 0-4 @ 1.43% ( 0.02) 2-4 @ 1.23% ( 0) Other @ 2.75% Total : 43.53% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Leicester CityLeicester | 46 | 31 | 4 | 11 | 89 | 41 | 48 | 97 |
P | Ipswich TownIpswich | 46 | 28 | 12 | 6 | 92 | 57 | 35 | 96 |
3 | Leeds UnitedLeeds | 46 | 27 | 9 | 10 | 81 | 43 | 38 | 90 |
4 | Southampton | 46 | 26 | 9 | 11 | 87 | 63 | 24 | 87 |
5 | West Bromwich AlbionWest Brom | 46 | 21 | 12 | 13 | 70 | 47 | 23 | 75 |
6 | Norwich CityNorwich | 46 | 21 | 10 | 15 | 79 | 64 | 15 | 73 |
7 | Hull City | 46 | 19 | 13 | 14 | 68 | 60 | 8 | 70 |
8 | Middlesbrough | 46 | 20 | 9 | 17 | 71 | 62 | 9 | 69 |
9 | Coventry CityCoventry | 46 | 17 | 13 | 16 | 70 | 59 | 11 | 64 |
10 | Preston North EndPreston | 46 | 18 | 9 | 19 | 56 | 67 | -11 | 63 |
11 | Bristol City | 46 | 17 | 11 | 18 | 53 | 51 | 2 | 62 |
12 | Cardiff CityCardiff | 46 | 19 | 5 | 22 | 53 | 70 | -17 | 62 |
13 | Millwall | 46 | 16 | 11 | 19 | 45 | 55 | -10 | 59 |
14 | Swansea CitySwansea | 46 | 15 | 12 | 19 | 59 | 65 | -6 | 57 |
15 | Watford | 46 | 13 | 17 | 16 | 61 | 61 | 0 | 56 |
16 | Sunderland | 46 | 16 | 8 | 22 | 52 | 54 | -2 | 56 |
17 | Stoke CityStoke | 46 | 15 | 11 | 20 | 49 | 60 | -11 | 56 |
18 | Queens Park RangersQPR | 46 | 15 | 11 | 20 | 47 | 58 | -11 | 56 |
19 | Blackburn RoversBlackburn | 46 | 14 | 11 | 21 | 60 | 74 | -14 | 53 |
20 | Sheffield WednesdaySheff Weds | 46 | 15 | 8 | 23 | 44 | 68 | -24 | 53 |
21 | Plymouth ArgylePlymouth | 46 | 13 | 12 | 21 | 59 | 70 | -11 | 51 |
R | Birmingham CityBirmingham | 46 | 13 | 11 | 22 | 50 | 65 | -15 | 50 |
R | Huddersfield TownHuddersfield | 46 | 9 | 18 | 19 | 48 | 77 | -29 | 45 |
R | Rotherham UnitedRotherham | 46 | 5 | 12 | 29 | 37 | 89 | -52 | 27 |
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