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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Doncaster Rovers win with a probability of 45.84%. A win for Crewe Alexandra had a probability of 29.96% and a draw had a probability of 24.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Doncaster Rovers win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.28%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.78%) and 0-2 (7.22%). The likeliest Crewe Alexandra win was 2-1 (7.26%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.28%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 7.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Doncaster Rovers would win this match.
Result | ||
Crewe Alexandra | Draw | Doncaster Rovers |
29.96% ( 0.32) | 24.19% ( 0.29) | 45.84% ( -0.61) |
Both teams to score 58.39% ( -0.8) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
56.11% ( -1.14) | 43.89% ( 1.14) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
33.72% ( -1.13) | 66.28% ( 1.13) |
Crewe Alexandra Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
72.36% ( -0.36) | 27.64% ( 0.36) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
36.81% ( -0.46) | 63.18% ( 0.46) |
Doncaster Rovers Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
80.69% ( -0.7) | 19.3% ( 0.71) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
48.94% ( -1.17) | 51.06% ( 1.17) |
Score Analysis |
Crewe Alexandra | Draw | Doncaster Rovers |
2-1 @ 7.26% ( 0.06) 1-0 @ 6.86% ( 0.27) 2-0 @ 4.41% ( 0.13) 3-1 @ 3.11% ( -0.01) 3-2 @ 2.56% ( -0.06) 3-0 @ 1.89% ( 0.04) 4-1 @ 1% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.88% Total : 29.96% | 1-1 @ 11.28% ( 0.2) 2-2 @ 5.97% ( -0.09) 0-0 @ 5.34% ( 0.26) 3-3 @ 1.4% ( -0.07) Other @ 0.2% Total : 24.19% | 1-2 @ 9.28% ( -0.04) 0-1 @ 8.78% ( 0.24) 0-2 @ 7.22% ( 0.04) 1-3 @ 5.09% ( -0.14) 0-3 @ 3.96% ( -0.07) 2-3 @ 3.27% ( -0.12) 1-4 @ 2.09% ( -0.11) 0-4 @ 1.63% ( -0.07) 2-4 @ 1.35% ( -0.08) Other @ 3.18% Total : 45.84% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Stockport CountyStockport | 46 | 27 | 11 | 8 | 96 | 48 | 48 | 92 |
P | Wrexham | 46 | 26 | 10 | 10 | 89 | 52 | 37 | 88 |
P | Mansfield TownMansfield | 46 | 24 | 14 | 8 | 90 | 47 | 43 | 86 |
4 | MK Dons | 46 | 23 | 9 | 14 | 83 | 68 | 15 | 78 |
5 | Doncaster RoversDoncaster | 46 | 21 | 8 | 17 | 73 | 68 | 5 | 71 |
6 | Crewe AlexandraCrewe | 46 | 19 | 14 | 13 | 69 | 65 | 4 | 71 |
7 | Crawley TownCrawley | 46 | 21 | 7 | 18 | 73 | 67 | 6 | 70 |
8 | BarrowBarrow | 46 | 18 | 15 | 13 | 62 | 56 | 6 | 69 |
9 | Bradford CityBradford | 46 | 19 | 12 | 15 | 61 | 59 | 2 | 69 |
10 | AFC Wimbledon | 46 | 17 | 14 | 15 | 64 | 51 | 13 | 65 |
11 | Walsall | 46 | 18 | 11 | 17 | 69 | 73 | -4 | 65 |
12 | Gillingham | 46 | 18 | 10 | 18 | 46 | 57 | -11 | 64 |
13 | Harrogate TownHarrogate | 46 | 17 | 12 | 17 | 60 | 69 | -9 | 63 |
14 | Notts County | 46 | 18 | 7 | 21 | 89 | 86 | 3 | 61 |
15 | Morecambe | 46 | 17 | 10 | 19 | 67 | 81 | -14 | 58 |
16 | Tranmere RoversTranmere | 46 | 17 | 6 | 23 | 67 | 70 | -3 | 57 |
17 | Accrington StanleyAccrington | 46 | 16 | 9 | 21 | 63 | 71 | -8 | 57 |
18 | Newport CountyNewport | 46 | 16 | 7 | 23 | 62 | 76 | -14 | 55 |
19 | Swindon TownSwindon | 46 | 14 | 12 | 20 | 77 | 83 | -6 | 54 |
20 | Salford City | 46 | 13 | 12 | 21 | 66 | 82 | -16 | 51 |
21 | Grimsby Town | 46 | 11 | 16 | 19 | 57 | 74 | -17 | 49 |
22 | Colchester UnitedColchester | 46 | 11 | 12 | 23 | 59 | 80 | -21 | 45 |
R | Sutton UnitedSutton | 46 | 9 | 15 | 22 | 59 | 84 | -25 | 42 |
R | Forest Green RoversForest Green | 46 | 11 | 9 | 26 | 44 | 78 | -34 | 42 |
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