Champions League

Champions League | Second Qualifying Round | 1st Leg

Jul 25, 2023 at 7pm UK

Stadion Maksimir

Dinamo Zagreb
4 - 0
Astana

(Dinamo Zagreb win 6-0 on aggregate)

Spikic (35'), Ivanusec (41', 43', 56')

FT(HT: 3-0)

Vorogovskiy (66')

Preview

Data Analysis

Lineups

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's Champions League clash between Dinamo Zagreb and Astana, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Dinamo Zagreb

All competitions

Last Game: Dinamo Zagreb 1-2 Hajduk Split
Friday, July 21 at 7pm in Croatian 1. HNL

Goals
for

Top scorers

Astana

All competitions

Champions League

Last Game: Dinamo Tbilisi 1-2 Astana
Wednesday, July 19 at 5pm in Champions League

	Team	Goals scored	Avg per game	Top scorer
1	Osijek	12	6.00	Bukvic
2	Rijeka	4	4.00	Jankovic
3	Hajduk Split	2	2.00	Livaja
4	Slaven Koprivnica	2	1.00	Crnac
5	Dinamo Zagreb	1	1.00	Petkovic
6	Gorica	1	1.00	Vujnovic
7	Istra 1961	1	1.00	Erceg
8	NK Lokomotiva	1	1.00	Bubanja
9	Varazdin	1	1.00	Brodic
10	Rudeš	0	0.00

We said: Dinamo Zagreb 3-1 Astana

Dinamo Zagreb will be aiming to provide themselves with some breathing space ahead of making the lengthy journey to Kazakhstan for the second leg of this tie next week. There is little doubt that the Croatians have much more individual quality than Astana, and we can envisage them winning by a couple of goals to increase their chances of making it through to the third round of qualifying. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Dinamo Zagreb win with a probability of 56.84%. A draw had a probability of 23.1% and a win for Astana had a probability of 20.02%.

The most likely scoreline for a Dinamo Zagreb win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.48%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.25%) and 2-1 (9.83%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11%), while for an Astana win it was 0-1 (6.16%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 2.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Dinamo Zagreb would win this match.

Result
Dinamo Zagreb	Draw	Astana
56.84% ( 0.02)	23.14%	20.02% ( -0.02)

Both teams to score 51.32% (

-0.02)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

51.72% (

-0.01)

48.28% (

0.02)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

29.57% (

-0.01)

70.43% (

0.02)

Dinamo Zagreb Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

83.24% (

16.76%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

53.3% (

46.71%

Astana Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

61.65% (

-0.02)

38.35% (

0.02)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

24.9% (

-0.02)

75.11% (

0.02)

Score Analysis

Dinamo Zagreb 56.83%

Astana 20.02%

Draw 23.14%

Dinamo Zagreb	Draw	Astana
1-0 @ 11.48% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 10.25% ( 0.01) 2-1 @ 9.83% ( -0) 3-0 @ 6.1% ( 0) 3-1 @ 5.85% 3-2 @ 2.8% ( -0) 4-0 @ 2.73% ( 0) 4-1 @ 2.61% 4-2 @ 1.25% 5-0 @ 0.97% 5-1 @ 0.93% Other @ 2.03% Total : 56.83%	1-1 @ 11% 0-0 @ 6.43% ( 0) 2-2 @ 4.71% ( -0) Other @ 1% Total : 23.14%	0-1 @ 6.16% 1-2 @ 5.27% ( -0) 0-2 @ 2.95% ( -0) 1-3 @ 1.69% ( -0) 2-3 @ 1.5% ( -0) 0-3 @ 0.94% ( -0) Other @ 1.5% Total : 20.02%