Bundesliga

Bundesliga | Gameweek 18

Jan 20, 2024 at 2.30pm UK

Schwarzwald-Stadion

Freiburg
3 - 2
Hoffenheim

Holer (37'), Grifo (55'), Sallai (85')
Gulde (43'), Grifo (56')
Gulde (82')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Weghorst (57'), Beier (77')
Kaderabek (8'), Kabak (31'), Philipp (87')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Bundesliga clash between Freiburg and Hoffenheim, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Freiburg

All competitions

Bundesliga

Last Game: Freiburg 0-0 Union Berlin
Saturday, January 13 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga

Goals
for

Top scorers

Hoffenheim

All competitions

Last Game: Bayern 3-0 Hoffenheim
Friday, January 12 at 7.30pm in Bundesliga

Goals
for

Top scorers

We said: Freiburg 2-1 Hoffenheim

A closely-fought contest between two evenly-matched teams vying for European qualification could be on the cards this weekend, but Freiburg will boast the psychological edge considering their recent record in this fixture. Hoffenheim certainly have the firepower to cause problems in the final third, but we believe that Freiburg will find a way to come out on top in front of their own supporters to complete the double over their Sinsheim-based counterparts. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Freiburg win with a probability of 64.21%. A draw had a probability of 18.9% and a win for Hoffenheim had a probability of 16.94%.

The most likely scoreline for a Freiburg win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.69%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.74%) and 1-0 (7.58%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.4%), while for a Hoffenheim win it was 1-2 (4.66%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 4.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Freiburg would win this match.

Result
Freiburg	Draw	Hoffenheim
64.21% ( 0.01)	18.85% ( -0)	16.94% ( -0)

Both teams to score 60.33% (

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

66.34% (

0.01)

33.66% (

-0.01)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

44.53% (

0.02)

55.48% (

-0.01)

Freiburg Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

90.05% (

0.01)

9.95% (

-0)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

67.09% (

0.01)

32.91% (

-0.01)

Hoffenheim Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

67% (

33% (

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

30.41% (

69.59% (

Score Analysis

Freiburg 64.21%

Hoffenheim 16.94%

Draw 18.85%

Freiburg	Draw	Hoffenheim
2-1 @ 9.69% ( -0) 2-0 @ 8.74% 1-0 @ 7.58% ( -0) 3-1 @ 7.46% ( 0) 3-0 @ 6.73% ( 0) 4-1 @ 4.3% ( 0) 3-2 @ 4.13% ( 0) 4-0 @ 3.88% ( 0) 4-2 @ 2.39% ( 0) 5-1 @ 1.99% ( 0) 5-0 @ 1.79% ( 0) 5-2 @ 1.1% ( 0) Other @ 4.44% Total : 64.21%	1-1 @ 8.4% ( -0) 2-2 @ 5.37% 0-0 @ 3.28% ( -0) 3-3 @ 1.53% Other @ 0.27% Total : 18.85%	1-2 @ 4.66% ( -0) 0-1 @ 3.64% ( -0) 0-2 @ 2.02% ( -0) 2-3 @ 1.99% 1-3 @ 1.72% Other @ 2.92% Total : 16.94%