Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Villarreal win with a probability of 37.25%. A win for Rayo Vallecano had a probability of 36.76% and a draw had a probability of 26%.
The most likely scoreline for a Villarreal win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.28%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.27%) and 0-2 (6.22%). The likeliest Rayo Vallecano win was 1-0 (9.2%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.33%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-1 draw for this match.
Result | ||
Rayo Vallecano | Draw | Villarreal |
36.76% ( 1.16) | 25.98% ( 0.23) | 37.25% ( -1.39) |
Both teams to score 54.31% ( -0.72) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
49.92% ( -0.95) | 50.07% ( 0.95) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
27.95% ( -0.86) | 72.05% ( 0.85) |
Rayo Vallecano Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
73.55% ( 0.22) | 26.44% ( -0.22) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
38.38% ( 0.29) | 61.61% ( -0.29) |
Villarreal Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
73.83% ( -1.21) | 26.16% ( 1.2) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
38.75% ( -1.65) | 61.24% ( 1.64) |
Score Analysis |
Rayo Vallecano | Draw | Villarreal |
1-0 @ 9.2% ( 0.41) 2-1 @ 8.21% ( 0.14) 2-0 @ 6.12% ( 0.31) 3-1 @ 3.64% ( 0.08) 3-0 @ 2.71% ( 0.15) 3-2 @ 2.44% ( -0.03) 4-1 @ 1.21% ( 0.03) 4-0 @ 0.9% ( 0.06) Other @ 2.33% Total : 36.76% | 1-1 @ 12.33% ( 0.12) 0-0 @ 6.92% ( 0.26) 2-2 @ 5.5% ( -0.1) 3-3 @ 1.09% ( -0.05) Other @ 0.13% Total : 25.97% | 0-1 @ 9.28% ( 0.04) 1-2 @ 8.27% ( -0.2) 0-2 @ 6.22% ( -0.19) 1-3 @ 3.7% ( -0.22) 0-3 @ 2.78% ( -0.19) 2-3 @ 2.46% ( -0.13) 1-4 @ 1.24% ( -0.12) 0-4 @ 0.93% ( -0.1) Other @ 2.38% Total : 37.25% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Real Madrid | 38 | 29 | 8 | 1 | 87 | 26 | 61 | 95 |
2 | Barcelona | 38 | 26 | 7 | 5 | 79 | 44 | 35 | 85 |
3 | GironaGirona | 38 | 25 | 6 | 7 | 85 | 46 | 39 | 81 |
4 | Atletico MadridAtletico | 38 | 24 | 4 | 10 | 70 | 43 | 27 | 76 |
5 | Athletic Bilbao | 38 | 19 | 11 | 8 | 61 | 37 | 24 | 68 |
6 | Real Sociedad | 38 | 16 | 12 | 10 | 51 | 39 | 12 | 60 |
7 | Real BetisBetis | 38 | 14 | 15 | 9 | 48 | 45 | 3 | 57 |
8 | Villarreal | 38 | 14 | 11 | 13 | 65 | 65 | 0 | 53 |
9 | Valencia | 38 | 13 | 10 | 15 | 40 | 45 | -5 | 49 |
10 | AlavesAlaves | 38 | 12 | 10 | 16 | 36 | 46 | -10 | 46 |
11 | Osasuna | 38 | 12 | 9 | 17 | 45 | 56 | -11 | 45 |
12 | Getafe | 38 | 10 | 13 | 15 | 42 | 54 | -12 | 43 |
13 | Celta Vigo | 38 | 10 | 11 | 17 | 46 | 57 | -11 | 41 |
14 | Sevilla | 38 | 10 | 11 | 17 | 48 | 54 | -6 | 41 |
15 | Mallorca | 38 | 8 | 16 | 14 | 33 | 44 | -11 | 40 |
16 | Las PalmasLas Palmas | 38 | 10 | 10 | 18 | 33 | 47 | -14 | 40 |
17 | Rayo Vallecano | 38 | 8 | 14 | 16 | 29 | 48 | -19 | 38 |
R | CadizCadiz | 38 | 6 | 15 | 17 | 26 | 55 | -29 | 33 |
R | Almeria | 38 | 3 | 12 | 23 | 43 | 75 | -32 | 21 |
R | Granada | 38 | 4 | 9 | 25 | 38 | 79 | -41 | 21 |
> La Liga Full Table |